Sun Bowl

Northwestern (7-4, 5-3 Big 10)

vs. UCLA (9-2, 6-2 Pac-10)

2:00 PM Eastern, CBS

For two maligned teams, their matchup is getting a lot of hype.  People are expecting a shootout between their potent offenses.  It's nice to see the Pac-10/Big 10 matchup here, especially between less traditional powers (although UCLA fans would argue they're a Pac-10 power; I'd rate them behind UW and USC).  Right now the Bruins are favored by a field goal.

Northwestern notes:

• #27 rush offense (195.9 yards/game, 5.0 yards/carry)
• #10 pass offense (296.8 yards/game, 7.4 yards/attempt, 20 TD/7 INT, 63.8% completions) and a #33 pass efficiency ranking
• #32 scoring offense (31.8 points/game)
• #102 scoring defense (32.5 points/game)
• #109 rush defense (209.7 yards/game, 5.1 yards/carry)
• #106 pass defense (273.2 yards/game, 7.5 yards/attempt, 17 TD/17 INT, 59.1% completions) and a #74 pass efficiency defense ranking
• #19 turnover margin (0.73, +8) Gained: 9 fumbles and 17 interceptions.  Lost: 11 fumbles and 7 interceptions

In brief:

Northwestern has an explosive offense, one that can attack both on the ground and through the air.  They play a heady brand of ball and other than putting the ball on the ground a bit, are dominant despite a paucity of talent at positions other than quarterback and tailback.  Their defense is a sieve however, and holds this team back.  Injuries and transfers hurt them in the offseason, but they've found a way to  record a decent handful of forced turnovers.

UCLA notes:

• #54 rush offense (147.1 yards/game, 4.2 yards/carry)
• #19 pass offense (281.9 yards/game, 8.5 yards/attempt, 31 TD/3 INT, 64.9% completions) and a #3 pass efficiency ranking
• #7 scoring offense (38.1 points/game)
• #107 scoring defense (33.8 points/game)
• #117 rush defense (238.6 yards/game, 5.4 yards/carry)
• #62 pass defense (218.9 yards/game, 7.1 yards/attempt, 17 TD/6 INT, 60.4% completions) and a #86 pass efficiency defense
• #24 turnover margin (0.64, +7) Gained: 13 fumbles and 6 interceptions.  Lost: 9 fumbles and 3 interceptions

In brief:

UCLA has a very explosive offense, one that rarely turns the ball over behind veteran quarterback Drew Olson.  They're not quite as skilled as Northwestern at running the ball, but Maurice Drew is very dangerous and lines up all over the field.  The Bruins' defense is another sieve, but they've been able to pounce on a few fumbles and generally win the turnover battle.

Conclusion:

There's a scene from the movie EuroTrip where one of the characters is freaking out about a hitch in his plans to find a girl.  His buddy tells an English hooligan nearby "this is predictably Scotty talk" and explains why things will work out.  Well, this is a predictable UCLA bowl.  The Bruins come in with a good deal of hype and most fans appear to favor them.  However, we've seen what happens when they show up at winnable bowl games: disaster.  I think Northwestern will have a more level head here, and be the beneficiary of a few fluke plays that tilt this game in their favor.  UCLA will predictably melt down somewhere and lose yet again (unless they can pronounce the safe word---I highly doubt it).  CFR likes the Wildcats of Northwestern.