This is way late.

Basically, the Heisman Trophy winner is dictated by a set of unspoken rules.  Blogger HeismanPundit has repeatedly and definitively spelled this out.

Thing is, some of the rules may be broken this year.  They almost were last year (Oklahoma quarterback Jason White finished third, dangerously near a repeat; teammate Adrian Peterson finished a fairly close second as a freshman and underclassman).

So let's separate things just a touch---

Leading candidates on my list who in theory cannot win:

1)Matt Leinart, USC Quarterback (No repeat winners)

2)Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma Back (No underclassmen)

3)Marshawn Lynch, California Back (No uderclassmen)

4)Brian Brohm, Louisville Quarterback (No underclassmen) 

5)Brandon Cox, Auburn Quarterback (No underclassmen)

I actually think Matt Leinart has a great shot at becoming just the second repeat Heisman winner, behind Ohio State's  Archie Griffin (who is perhaps a historical anomaly).  Peterson also has a great shot but his team may not be all that good this year and he'll be playing behind a shaky line, carrying an injury history of shoulder separations. Not good.  Its nearly impossible to win the award if you can't suit up every game.  The other three are very unlikely to win the award, but have strong shots at making it to New York City as "field" candidates among the final five.

If I had to make a list omitting those solid choices, It would look as follows:

1)Reggie Bush, USC Athlete

To me, Reggie Bush has nearly everything going for him and is arguably the leading candidate.  We would have voted for him last year, in fact.

2)Chris Leak, Florida Quarterback

Heisman finalists and winners are heavily slanted towards successful teams.  Leak put up great numbers under a far less offensively gifted coach.  Now he's playing under perhaps the elite offensive coach in the country (now that Norm Chow is gone from USC).  His numbers should go up, and importantly, his wins should go up.  It is CFR's view that Florida's offense will soon dominate the SEC.  How quickly the team picks it up should define the heights of Chris Leak's Heisman candidacy.

3)Vince Young, Texas Quarterback

I'm not all that high on Young's shot at winning the award.  He's simply not a great quarterback.  He is a great runner, though, but outside of the Rose Bowl, few remember many of his performances last year.  Can he consistently bring a Rose Bowl type game when people are watching?  He hasn't so far.  I think people will find themselves a bit disappointed this year, if only because its impossible to do the impossible every week.  Or is it?

4)Reggie McNeal, Texas A&M Quarterback

My faith in A&M has wavered lately, so if they're sliding, so too will Reggie in the Heisman race.  He's a more dynamic quarterback than Vince Young, and his stock will soar if the Aggies somehow capture the Big Twelve title.

5)Drew Tate, Iowa Quarterback

He's got that unmistakeable moxie, and is etched in voters' memories after the classic comeback against LSU in the bowl last year.  Tate's actually a decent thrower and Iowa should be fairly successful this season.  There's some Heisman finalist history with mobile Iowa quarterbacks, most recently Brad Banks who finished second to USC's Carson Palmer in 2002.

Some other candidates to consider:

• Kyle Wright, Miami Quarterback

Kyle should have a pretty good statistical season, and he'll be the classic Miami quarterback driving a productive offense.  If the Canes show significant improvement this year Wright might get some looks and build for a 2006 campaign.

• Lawrence Maroney, Minnesota Back

Minnesota's run offense is one of those classic CFB machine offenses, churning out yards with brutal efficiency, no matter the opponent.  There's some All America hype for two of his linemen, and he may go for well over 2,000 yards this year now that backfield mate Marion Barber III is in the NFL.  This year's field is simply too loaded for Lawrence to really make a dent unless his numbers are so far beyond what people anticipate he can do.

• Jared Zabransky, Boise State Quarterback

On another name program, Jared might make a Drew Tate-like candidate.  He has incredible on field charisma, is a great athlete, and is a winner and a great quarterback.  His numbers will be great, his team will have a terrific record and offensive statistics, and he has a national game against Georgia opening weekend to hopefully show off his skills.  Problem is, he still plays for Boise State and is a bit of a strange dude.  His Heisman story is pretty cool though, being the son of potato farmers.  He can launch spuds nearly the length of an entire football field.  I wish I was making that up.

• Brian Johnson, Utah Quarterback

Brian, a sophomore, is a first-time starter, but he's playing in a very productive offensive system on a team that placed its candidate into the final field of five just last year.  Like Alex Smith he's a good athlete and an intriguing thrower.  The Utah coaches are very comfortable with him.  This is one of those School-Position picks, kind of like USC quarterback or Iowa quarterback that have some resonance recently with Heisman voters.

I have issues putting two exciting candidates on my list---Ted Ginn, Jr. athlete Ohio State and Devin Hester, athlete, Miami.  Both of these guys don't really have a static position on the field.  They do their damage basically out-athleting the opposition, which is stunning to watch but difficult to measure as a Heisman voter.  Because they both return the ball they show versatility, but unlike an athlete like say Reggie Bush, they don't get the ball consistently enough to gain the public's faith as candidates.

Additionally, Ginn is just a sophomore and according to the Heismandments, underclassmen cannot win the award.  This is difficult because I absolutely love watching both of these guys and have long had my eye on them as superb football players.  But, Heisman history and rules are what they are, and that makes it nearly impossible for serious Heisman analysts to give them much weight as potential award winners.

Here are some other guys who I considered at some level for this list and do in fact have a shot of making the finals and maybe for a few of them a very slim shot at winning:

Chad Henne-Michigan Quarterback

Mike Hart-Michigan Back

Sam Keller-Arizona State Quarterback

Paul Thompson-Oklahoma Quarterback

Michael Bush-Louisville Back

Brady Quinn-Notre Dame Quarterback

Omar Jacobs-Bowling Green Quarterback

Given all this information, this is the CollegeFootballResource.com 2005 preseason Heisman Top Candidate List:

1. Reggie Bush, USC back
2. Matt Leinart, USC quarterback
3. Chris Leak, Florida quarterback
4. Vince Young, Texas quarterback
5. Marshawn Lynch, California back
6. Brian Brohm, Louisville quarterback
7. Reggie McNeal, Texas A&M quarterback
8. Drew Tate, Iowa quarterback
9. Brandon Cox, Auburn quarterback
10. Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma back

For comparison, here is HeismanPundit's preseason candidate list:

1. Reggie Bush, USC back
2. Chris Leak, Florida quarterback
3. Vince Young, Texas quarterback
4. Reggie McNeal, Texas A&M quarterback
5. Drew Tate, Iowa quarterback
6. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame quarterback
7. Maurice Drew, UCLA back
8. Lawrence Maroney, Minnesota back
9. Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma back
10. Matt Leinart, USC quarterback