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Thursday
16Feb

That's Nice, How About an Encore?

Some early 2006 thoughts on the teams making CFR's final 2005 rankings:

  1. Texas-It took the program what, 35 years to reclaim a title?  It's ridiculously unlikely they'll repeat without Vince Young back there, but I wouldn't be so quick to write them off.  That said, they're 1)fat and happy after finally winning a title and 2)headless, until a new quarterback is found.  Aside from hotshot frosh Jevan Snead, the replacements look like filler.  Fillers---Marcus Autzen, Chance Mock---don't win titles.
  2. USC-They're not going anywhere.  However, they desperately need to settle on a quarterback and let him make his mistakes early.  The formula worked well for Matt Leinart in 2003 and he was fine after his sixth start, losing just once more his entire career.  Junior John David Booty and freshman Mark Sanchez are the candidates, and both are former #1 recruits.  USC's defense should settle itself now that the kids are a little more grown up and hopefully past an ugly year of debilitating injuries.  That said, their defensive interior remains a question mark.  Hmm...
  3. Ohio State-The early buzz leader for 2006 title contenders.  Problem is, all but 3 defensive starters are gone.  You know who had the same problem last year?  USC.  That catches up with you at some point, USC just happens to be good enough to get within :19 of defying the odds.  Don't count on Ohio State being as lucky or good.  However, the offense was surging in the second half last year and Troy Smith is now firmly entrenched as the starter.  Good times.  I had my doubts about Antonio Pittman early last year but he's emerged as a great fit for that offense.  He won't blow anyone away but he's durable, can catch the ball, and move the pile.  Freshman Chris Wells should become a powerful compliment as the season unfolds.
  4. Penn State-They're baaaack.  Penn State finally played like itself last year after repeated seasons of underachievement.  I'm not sure the offensive system is such that it can simply replace an established quarterback with an erratic backup and continue humming, so a repeat of 2005 isn't likely.  What the Nittany Lions do have is some momentum to work with, as the re-energized fans should help steal an extra home win or two next year.
  5. Virginia Tech-Addition by subtraction?  Marcus Vick was an outstanding quarterback and in my estimation would have had a remarkable 2006.  That's no longer a reality, however.  The Hokies' defense must replace some starters from a core that had two very strong seasons, so I'm expecting a dropoff.
  6. Notre Dame-This is a big year for Notre Dame.  They'll have a lot of hype and expectations, even after the demoralizing bowl loss to Ohio State.  The Irish are in a great position, though, with a national schedule and the return of Brady Quinn.  Their recruiting class should add a few contributors on both sides of the ball, finally returning Notre Dame's talent (but not yet depth) to the pre-Davie levels.  The expectations and hype will be extraordinary, perhaps matching the buzz around USC last year.  But, the Irish would have to win a few games first, and their schedule is definitely choppy.
  7. West Virginia-Hmm... The Mountaineers have been the worst kind of tease lately, playing poorly when they were the talk of the town and then putting together a great team in the shadows last year.  Fundamentally they look good, but history says young playmakers find ways to screw things up.  They may have been a bit lucky and snuck up on people last year (Georgia?!), and that may reverse itself this year as people will be gunning for them.  This could be a frustrating year for the faithful, as sophomore realities set in---much like what happened last year to Michigan's Chad Henne and Mike Hart.
  8. Georgia-They missed on a great opportunity last year.  Other than the quarterback situation, this looks like another loaded Georgia team... but you gotta have a good quarterback to do well nowadays.  There's a lot of hype around frosh quarterback Matthew Stafford, but who knows, maybe one of the incumbents can hold onto a job for a while.  This reminds me a little of Texas' situation where the rest of the roster is set except at quarterback.  I'm a huge fan of playing young quarterbacks, but in general they can only take their team to the cusp of an elite level/greatness.  And with ever-changing rosters, sometimes the best team they'll be on may be their first year when they're not experienced enough to play at a level necessary to contend for a title.  Frustrating stuff.
  9. LSU-I've long considered the Tigers pretenders.  That may be more of the same this year.  They always look good on paper but I'm not super-high on either of the quarterbacks.  The defense can be exploited by good offenses.  The best back's coming off a serious knee injury and the next-best option is football's equivalent of Chuck Knoblach.  Is there a player on the roster that can boost their fortunes?  Possibly, but I haven't seen him.  It's not like they've made great use of Early Doucet and Xavier Carter.  Either player would be a star already at several major programs.
  • Auburn-The Tigers are in a great position.  There's ample talent on the roster, it looks balanced across most units, and the quarterback has his first season of starting behind him.
  • Oregon-The Ducks need to settle on a quarterback, but should be riding 2005's momentum.  They have an elite recruit to sneak into the backfield in Johnathan Stewart, a fleet group of receivers, and who knows what on defense now that tackle Haloti Ngata's off to the NFL.
  • UCLA-Welcome to the Ben Olson era.  The Bruins have improved every year under Karl Dorrell, but must now adjust to the bizarre, haphazard coaching purges that have gone on since January.
  • Louisville-Last season was a disappointment, but the program managed to retain its three stars: coach Bobby Petrino, quarterback Brian Brohm and back Michael Bush.  They now have a feel for Big East play and a bad taste in their mouths---good motivation.  Brohm should be much improved (see Cox, Brandon) now that his first season as a starter is behind him.
  • Alabama-The offense couldn't get any worse than it was last year, so things should be better for the Tide whether or not their record indicates as much.  It's a boost to the players to get a taste of winning after several modest seasons heading into last year.

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Reader Comments (4)

"The Ohio State offense was surging in the second half last year and Troy Smith is now firmly entrenched as the starter."

Be careful about giving too much love to the Buckeyes for their late-season offensive surge. Here are the national Scoring Defense ranks of their opponents after the loss at Penn State: 77, 104, 80, 115, 106, 24, 53.

One good defense (Michigan), one mediocre defense (Notre Dame), and a bunch of cannon fodder.

They could still be a very good offense, but I remain skeptical that they are The Next Big Thing.

"I'm not sure Penn State's offensive system is such that it can simply replace an established quarterback with an erratic backup and continue humming, so a repeat of 2005 isn't likely."

I'd think "untested" is a more accurate description of Anthony Morelli than "erratic." He's only thrown 33 passes in his career.

You're right about PSU's offensive scheme--you just can't replace a Michael Robinson and keep on clicking. Which is why Penn State is going to the spread in 2006. The Nittany Lion offensive staff is going to meet with the Colts in the off-season for guidance. (Assistant Head Coach/QB Coach Jim Caldwell is a former PSU assistant.)

Of equal concern are the loss of the entire secondary and Tamba Hali.
February 16, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterTrader Kevin
Might be biased, but I like ASU's chances to be a top 15 team next year. The defense added much-needed depth through recruiting, especially on the line. ASU's defense will go from awful to average, which is a huge upgrade.

Offensively, they might have some semblance of a consistent running game with the addition of that Nance RB who is one of only 2 RBs in Texas 5A history to rush for 3k yards. Ced Benson was the other.

ASU's recruiting class won't get any national pub, but it did a great job of patching up the huge holes it had last year.

It'll be interesting to see how Burgess will fare at WR. This time he supposedly is moving back to WR for good. We'll see...
February 17, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterStephen Kim
Do more research on Texas and you will find that the so called "filler" qb Colt McCoy set many Texas High School football records an is place high up on most others. He is the probable starter at this point on a veteran filled offense of which he will be only a small portion of. This is not a team that will endure an OU like collapse after their 2004 season.
February 17, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterTurner Brown
Turner Brown- The issue with Texas' QBs is that they will need to revert back to their old offense they used before Young. Perhaps they won't totally scrap the shotgun zone read, but it won't be 1/3rd as effective without Young in the backfield.

McCoy will be similar to Chance Mock, imo. He'll be somewhat productive, but he just won't be someone who will win you games on his own like Young did. The odds of McCoy being anywhere near as good as Young are slim to none.

Texas will obviosuly be loaded at every other position by and large, to where they won't lose more than 1-2 games next season by default.
February 18, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterStephen Kim

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