Let me first say that I'm very much a school of the observed type of guy.  I think a lot can be gleaned by watching the games.  Things that the numbers don't pick up, or things that the numbers tell lies about.  It's a little of that SABR/Numbers Guys vs. Scouting that goes on in baseball circles---although small irony I'm very much in the numbers crowd when it comes to baseball.  However, football's a different game.

There is a frustrating recent entry at the DraftDaddy blog I have to single out:

We reported this weekend that Texas A & M safety Jaxson Appel ( 5’ 10", 193) ran the 40 yard dash in 4.54 seconds at Aggies Pro Day last weekend. Today, NFL.com is reporting Appel ran his 40 times in 4.53 and 4.46 seconds.

Appel is player we had ranked among our top 10 safeties all season and was in our top 5 for a while based on his career production. After he didn’t get a sniff at the Senior Bowl or the Combine (which invited 64 defensive backs), we dropped him from our top 15 safety prospects because a source told us he was "too slow", which is why he wasn’t really highly regarded by NFL teams....His recent 40 times show Appel is much faster than anyone believed and the sad part is, his great career as a four year starter basically went unnoticed to many scouts.

I respect the guys at DraftDaddy.  They do their homework and have an interesting collection of sources and eyeballs to add to their own insight.  And they do in fact, watch the games.  However, this entry missed the mark.

I saw a few of A&M's and Appel's games this year, and took some time to observe his style of play.  It's obvious from his numbers and watching him that he's a productive player, but most of his skills are highlighted when he's reasonably near the line of scrimmage.  However, when he's left in space, in coverage and particularly in deep zones he often looks lost.  Playing the passing game is at least half the equation for most safeties, and he's fairly weak in that department.  That's the real reason I think scouts aren't very high on him.

PS-do stop by their blog, it's terrific.