Storylines

SI's Stewart Mandel has a nice little breakdown today of spring storylines at ten elite programs.

Of little surprise, Tennessee's attempts at recovery from last year's disaster leads the pack.  Mandel runs with coach Fullmer's spiel that last year things just kinda happened and they lost their mojo and need to recover it, as if just doing things their way will bring their mojo back from outer space where it indiscriminately fled to last year.  I call BS.  Coach Fullmer tried to get cute with the quarterback situation when it was clear to the entire team who the better player was and he also happened to be a team captain.  Of little surprise, that never resolved itself and now the shaken Erik Ainge is the default starter.  Good luck with that.

Mandel also targets Ohio State's rebuilt defense, which must replace nine starters from last year.

It's not often you see a team lose nine starters on one side of the ball yet remain on the short list of national title contenders. Part of that is the buzz associated with Troy Smith, Ted Ginn Jr. and the rest of the Buckeyes' offense, but it also shows the deep confidence most people have in OSU's ability to reload

I don't know about you, but that raises a huge red flag with me.  Most of my readers know I love to talk about offense and value it more than some people.  Ohio State's offense was fantastic for the latter half of last year and they return nearly everyone this time around.  However, their coach hasn't changed and his Ohio State teams have never gone far without their defense, last year included.  The Buckeyes should be good this year, but the heart and soul of every Tressel team is defense, and this year's defense has a boatload of new faces.

Everyone remember how USC's great 2004 defense fell from its perch when they had to replace four All Americans and nine starters overall last year?  Experience and returning starters count, and replacing nine guys, even at elite schools like Ohio State and USC is a tall order.  So when Mandel says OSU's high preseason projection show much much faith "people" have in their ability to reload, I have to ask, what "people" are they?  At some point (or at several points) the Buckeyes will have an unexpected challenge and will have to fight to get that win.  Can an entirely new defense keep their title hopes afloat?  Can that vaunted offense truly carry that team, knowing that Tressel's never been an offensive maven?  We shall see, but CFR says Lucy, you got some splainin' to do to Buckeye title proponents.

Next up, Notre Dame.  Mandel says the Irish need a few good corners, harkening back to the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State where Ted Ginn Jr. and Santonio Holmes torched the Irish secondary.  The Irish corners aren't great, but they're not bad either.  They managed to shut down Michigan's receivers and USC's receivers last year (except for one long gain in each game).  So what happened?  In those games, they played an aggressive scheme and challenged those teams.  Against Ohio State, Notre Dame's defense went soft and left its corners well off the line of scrimmage.  The result was scorched earth.  The problem was the scheme, not the players.  Charlie Weis is obviously going to have to spend a little more time with his defense this offseason, which may affect the offense.  My guess is he committed a lot of time and personal capitol last year getting the Irish offense ready, which left the defense vulnerable but also meant the offense was probably a full six months ahead of schedule as they clearly exploded through most of their games in the second half of last year.

Finally, Mandel talks briefly about Georgia and their quarterback situation.  I'm not sure how that's going to shake out, but if Joe Tereshinski's named the starter, I hunch Georgia will be entirely too conservative on offense, reminiscent of David Greene's sophomore season when there were worried about a young and entirely rebuilt offensive line.  Coach Richt has rarely loosened the reins on what could have been some explosive offenses, and that will be the same if the adequate if unspectacular Tereshinski runs the show.  Incoming quarterback Matt Stafford is getting a lot of hype and the incumbents are a pedestrian group, so if I was a betting man I'd say watch for Stafford to be the starter if he has any grasp of the offense.  I've also heard his father and coach Richt go back a few years, so that relationship may help his cause. 

Comments

[LD]

RA, Greene's sophomore season at UGA was the year the Dawgs went 13-1, won the SEC and the Sugar Bowl with an all senior O-line. You probably mean the 2003 season, Greene's junior year. Look out for Joe Cox in the QB battle too. He broke a ton of Chris Leak's records in HS and already has a relationship with the best receiver (Massaquoi). Also, it wouldn't surprise me to see a more conservative approach this year because that's pretty much where the talent is, even disregarding the QB situation. Georgia has three running backs that can break for 100 yards in a game. They only have one real proven wideout returning (or uninjured), and one good TE. The personnel just doesn't fit right for opening up the playbook too much.

I kind of agree with you about UT, but I'm not sure for the same reason. I actually think their offense should be a lot better (Cutcliffe should help). I think it's on defense where they'll have more of a struggle. They lose Mahelona, Haralson, Allen, Simon, Gaither, all on that side of the ball. Really only Harrell and a couple of DBs return. Add those losses with a pretty tough schedule, and they could run into trouble. The opener against a (should be better than last year) Cal team could start things off on the wrong foot. And when UT goes off the rails, it's hard for them to get back on track.

[THE anonymous]

Ohio State is an interesting case. I think, most of the time, "people" (yeah, those same people) get enamored with offense. Maybe its because of the easy to compare stats or a by-product of fantasy football, but unless a team is clearly superior with defense, the defense gets overlooked. After the offensive explosion in the Fiesta Bowl and knowing that many of those players return, its an easy pick to see Ohio State doing well again next year. But hey, those are the same "people" that had Michigan and Tennessee as top five picks going into last season, so its all guess work at this point.

Weis is known for his offensive prowess and I'm sure it was only natural for him to concentrate on the offense when he first took over at ND. Remember, he took over relatively late because of the Super Bowl, so there wasn't an extensive amount of time before spring practice started. Also, much of the ND offense was returning from 2004 (10 of 11, including all skill positions), so while they may not have performed yet, they at least had playing experience. The defense did not have nearly that returning experience, or generally speaking, the same talent level. With much of the offense returning again this year, I think its fair to say that Weis will be spending much more of his time on the defense. He's a competitive guy, so its hard to think that the defense wouldn't be improved over the off-season.

[CW]

The so called experts have claimed for the past three pre-seasons that the Georgia Bulldogs were in the process of "rebuilding" while Mark Richt's critics perceived his offense as being too conservative. Along the way, Georgia's last batch of Senior's averaged 11 wins a season during their four year span and played in 3 SEC Championship games winning 2. That all said, it's no secret that competition at the QB position this spring at UGA is wide open and the 2006 season may in fact be Richt's biggest challenge since his first year in 2001. Senior and third generation Bulldog Joe Tereshinski III is the current number one guy behind center and it's a safe bet he'll retain that spot at the end of spring drills based on his experience. Talent wise, Tereshinski has never proven to be much more than a safety net for the Dawgs and returning red-shirt freshman Joe Cox is sharing time with J.T. taking snaps with the number one offense. Also returning is red-shirt sophomore Blake Barnes. Barnes was a solid recruit coming into Georgia and enters spring at number three. Highly touted incoming freshman Matthew Stafford, who graduated high school early and has enrolled at UGA so he can compete this spring, is currently listed as number four. Like any good Coach, loyalty is high on Richt's agenda. Unless he wants to risk losing Cox or Barnes or even both at the conclusion of spring training, count on him to retain that pecking order heading into summer camp regardless of how much of an impact Stafford makes. The real answer as to who is number one probably won't come until after the Dawgs get the opening game of 2006 against Western Kentucky under their belt. Knowledgeable Georgia fans know that what makes Richt a great coach is that his teams expect to win every game and as a coach he gives them that chance. He has proven that he'll take youth over experience if a player still in his developing years nevertheless gives Georgia the best chance to win (just ask Quincy Carter). Stafford is smart and has a cannon for an arm that's the best on the team. He was a high profile recruit and big time winner coming out of high school and despite his youth appears to have enough size (6-3 225) and athleticism to survive the brutal defenses in the SEC. Given Cox's and Barne's relative lack of development to this point, Richt must be hoping privately that Stafford performs well enough to jump past them on the depth chart. Plus in retrospect, it's unsettling for Dawg fans to know that the non-descript Tereshinski, his leadership qualities aside, was Georgia's best QB among the remaining three on the roster when starter DJ Shockley was injured and out for the always critical game against rival Florida last year. Georgia's success in 2006 would seem to be riding on the quick development of Stafford. Ironically, even with all of these bodies, Mark Richt may need to get another recruit in the QB pipeline. DJ Shockley was a year behind his four year predecessor David Greene. So as a backup, there was always a light at the end of the tunnel for "Shock" even if it was for just one year. If it does turn out that Stafford takes over during the 2006 campaign, Cox and Barnes may start looking for new teams when the season concludes.