Wrapping up what I started below...

I cautioned earlier and I repeat here: I'm working with imperfect information in my evaluations and data presented here.  This is my best estimate based on a narrow range of sources about the pool of likely first-round selections.

As you can see from the lists, the available elite talent appears to be heavily slanted toward defensive players.  There are 25 offensive and 34 defensive players listed here (59 total).  Although this is a banner year for tight ends, only a handful have any shot at being selected in the first round (Davis, Lewis, Pope, Byrd).  Additionally, the crop of worthy quarterbacks and running backs is slim, at three and four players.  Until the combine, the only receiver getting first-round mention was Santonio Holmes, so clearly the league is fairly unimpressed with the depth of the current offensive skill crop.

On defense, there is a lot of buzz about the crop of first-round linebackers, although I remain a bit skeptical about the big-money worthiness of a few of these players.  However, the real depth occurs along the defensive lines and secondary, with ten and 16 noteworthy players.

In a moment, I will offer my thoughts on who appears to be a lock for the first round, but first, some insight from NFL.com's Pat Kirwan and Gil Brandt.

On February 27 Kirwan wrote a column about the "draft logic starting to shape up".  The juicy part:

For the moment, let's eliminate the obvious players that have little to no chance of ever dropping out of the first round. One or two might slip, but for the most part, this is the core of the first round:

QB -- Matt Leinart, Vince Young, Jay Cutler
RB -- Reggie Bush, DeAngelo Williams, LenDale White, Laurence Maroney
WR -- Santonio Holmes
TE -- Vernon Davis, Marcedes Lewis
OT -- D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Winston Justice, Eric Winston
OG -- Max Jean-Gilles
C -- Nick Mangold
DE -- Mario Williams, Tamba Hali, Mathias Kiwanuka
DT -- Haloti Ngata, Broderick Bunkley, Rod Wright
LB -- A.J. Hawk, Chad Greenway, Bobby Carpenter, Demeco Ryans
S -- Michael Huff
CB -- Jimmy Williams, Ty Hill, Alan Zemaitas

I'd quibble with quite a few of these selections, but it's a quality rough framework based on the mentality of an NFL insider during the time of the Indianapolis Combine.

And on March 5 Gil Brandt singled out his top 12 prospects:

1. Reggie Bush
2. Jay Cutler
3. Vernon Davis
4. D'Brickashaw Ferguson
5. A.J. Hawk
6. Tye Hill
7. Michael Huff
8. Matt Leinart
9. Laurence Maroney
10. Haloti Ngata
11. Mario Williams
12. Vince Young

Those two entries provide an excellent framework to figure out what will happen through the first half of the first round.

Here are the guys I feel (as of right now) are locks to be chosen in the first round:

• Matt Leinart
• Vince Young
• Jay Cutler
• Reggie Bush
• LenDale White
• D'Brickashaw Ferguson
• Vernon Davis
• Haloti Ngata
• Mario Williams
• A.J. Hawk
• Mike Huff

Count 'em up, that's 11 players.  The first round has 32 selections, so out of the remaining pool of first-round players, there are 21 spots for 48 players.

After the can't-miss types, most of the draft will allocate itself by team need and whatever else motivates the individual teams and their management.

Just for kicks, here are the other players who consistently get first-round mention but I did not include on the previous list:

• Chad Greenway
• DeMeco Ryans
• Tye Hill
• Laurence Maroney
• DeAngelo Williams
• Eric Winston
• Chad Jackson
• Santonio Holmes

All of these guys have very strong chances to be selected in the first round.  If they're all chosen, along with the previous Elite 11, we're looking at 13 spots for a heck of a lot of guys with first-round buzz.  In my assessment, this is a very deep draft, and there isn't a huge dropoff if you take a look at the various multi-round mock drafts floating around on the internet.  I don't take much stock in these drafts, but they're good to get an idea what players are being discussed and how coveted they are, at least among the chattering class.

Finally, some minutae:

• Of CFR's 59 first-round graded players, just three (by my count, I could always be wrong) were JUCO's---Claude Wroten, Deuce Lutui and Johnathan Joseph.

• Approximately nine of the 59 players were recruited or played primarily at a position different from where they finished their college careers.  They include Charles Spencer (DL), Eric Winston (TE), Vernon Davis (WR), Manny Lawson (LB), Chad Greenway (QB!), Abdul Hodge (WR), Jason Allen (RB), Tye Hill (CB) and Michael Huff (I believe he was a running back/receiver/defensive back do-it-all in high school).  We could also include Florida State's Ernie Sims, who was equally coveted as a running back and a linebacker and is discussed as an NFL safety.

• Not including JUCO players, approximately 14 of the 56 players earned a top five PS# within their position group.  That number swells to 24 out of 56 if we count all players within the top 10 PS# ranking of their position groups.  Clearly a decent number of these football players entered and left college with high marks.

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Previous:

• Part II-NFL Draft, First Round and PS Numbers, Offense
• Part I-NFL Draft, First Round and PS Numbers, Defense
• The NFL Draft, The First Round, and PS Rankings
• Draft Strategery