CFR's Derby Picks

Because it's the Derby, I'm taking a small non-CFB departure this fine Saturday morning.

First things first, this year's field is missing perhaps the best horse, Stevie Wonderboy who has beaten several of the favorites head-to-head, but had an injury that forced him out of the running.

What's left is an impressive field, but not quite what it could be.  The good thing is that a full slate of 20 horses are anticipated to run this afternoon.

I went over the field yesterday with a friend of mine who follows the sport a little closer than myself.  Here's some of what I could glean from him:

Best late stalker/closer: #6 Showing Up
Best pedigree: #10 A.P. Warrior
Money horse: #8 Barbaro
Best time/fractions: #4 Sinister Minister
Best strength: #11 Sweetnorthernsaint

Here are some other themes to keep an eye on:

• The early favorites are #8 Barbaro, #17 Lawyer Ron and #18 Brother Derek, all undefeated in stakes racing.
• Famous trainer Bob Baffert has three horses entered---#4 Sinister Minister, #5 Point Determined and #7 Bob and John
• Two of the favorites have terrible gate assignments, #17 Lawyer Ron and #18 Brother Derek

Some notable Beyer speed figures:

• #4 Sinister Minister's last outing was a stunning 116, and he's run 73-102-58-91-116 in his last five races
• #3 Keyed Entry has slid a bit of late, but has overall fine numbers at 61-96-110-105-96
• Great last four for #11 Sweetnorthernsaint 102-104-104-109
• Something clicked with #17 Lawyer Ron in November of last year.  He'd been posting 53-55-49-83-78-78 before jumping to this quality run of 92-97-106-96-94-98
• Excellent numbers on #18 Brother Derek in his last four, 102-108-102-108
  

In my very novice analysis, I'm weary of most of the horses with outside gate assignments given the  field.  Several speedy front-runners are in the first 11 assignments and it will be hard for the great horses so far on the outside to sneak past some of the clutter on their inside and grab the lead without wasting a certain amount of energy.  Combine that with the previously unraced distance of 1^1/4 mile and a quality field and it's a lot to overcome.

My morning favorite is Sweetnorthernsaint, with Sinister Minister, A.P. Warrior and Barbaro in the money.

If the early pace isn't too quick the favorites will all run well, but as tends to happen, things may go fast early and wear out most of the field, providing the opportunity for late spoilers like happened last year with Giacomo.

Alright, that's all I have for now.

 
CFR favorite, speedy 2002 champ War Emblem

Update on Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 12:00AM by CFR

Congratulations to Derby 132 winner Barbero, in a great run to win by 6.5 lengths.

He toasted a quality field. 

Comments

[timmy milton]

Horses can't play football!! Except for Budweiser commercials. I think Reggie Bush could take Barbaro in a race.

[CFR]

Heh. Maybe.