Two weeks have now passed since allegations were published concerning former USC tailback Reggie Bush's housing situation.  Other allegations about Bush and USC followed, as well as a sexual assault arrest of a prominent backup quarterback.

Let's quickly summarize the allegations and where I think they're headed.

1)Reggie Bush Scandal

Bush (er, his family?) is accused of living in a $750k home in San Diego, perhaps without having paid any kind of rent.  Most of the accusations have come from the co-founders of the New Era sports marketing company also partnered by his father, LaMar Griffin.  Bush and Co. have been quiet except to allege extortion by the New Era guys.

Smell Factor (on a 0-10, 10 being Watergate): 8/10

The Bush folks aren't helping themselves or USC with their relative silence.  Based on what little we know, it appears his father, a sometime preacher and religious figure, conned a bunch of shady guys and ex-cons out of a lot of money and then left them hanging with a useless company.  This is a juicy story that won't easily go away.

Cheat Factor: 1/10 USC; 4/10 Bush

So far nothing's been connected to USC.  Unless further allegations arrive, USC is guilty of unknowingly playing a star athlete who may or may not have been ineligible.  Bush, or at least his parents, may have enjoyed rent-free living at a nice home and had their debts paid off to boot.  Based on future findings non NCAA sanctions may include USC vacating its 2004 BCS title, and Bush may lose his Heisman trophy.  But we're a long way from that happening.

Sanction Factor: 5/10

I'm not well-versed enough with the NCAA sanction process to make a good guess here.  It's my modest opinion that the NCAA makes up its rulings as it goes, lacking the consistent caseload volume of say, the nation's courts to have any kind of precedent-based system of judgments.  This is bad for the NCAA and bad for its member institutions.  It means a situation like this, with little precedent, is very much up to the whims of the NCAA investigators.

I will add that USC and the NCAA are not on the most friendly of terms right now.  Angry words from the USC camp went public after the resolution of Mike Williams' eligibility situation a day before USC's 2004 opener against Virginia Tech.  The NCAA may not be in a friendly or cooperative mood towards the Trojans.  However, they might not be in a great hurry to punish their flagship college football institution, no matter the past disagreement.

NCAA bylaws clearly state that institutions are responsible (Ed.-ridiculously) for knowing anything and everything about benefits enjoyed by their athletes, athletes' friends and athlete families, and can be punished for any transgressions whether or not they are aware of problems.  Therefore, USC is certainly not immune from a sanctioning process here, if the NCAA finds that Bush were ineligible.

2)Dwayne Jarrett Rent Situation

Star USC receiver Dwayne Jarrett has been living in an upscale apartment in downtown Los Angeles with  teammate Matt Leinart.  Both players used their NCAA stipends to pay a portion of the rent to Leinart's father, who then assumed the rest of the rent payment for the players. 

Smell Factor: 4/10

The smell is more because it's hard to imagine USC not knowing about this.  It sounds like they knew but failed to investigate further whether any NCAA violations occurred.  I'm not all that sympathetic towards USC on this one, but this does highlight some flaws in the NCAA amateurism process.  It basically asks college athletes to take a vow of poverty in order to stay eligible.  Thing is, living in Los Angeles isn't cheap and Leinart wanted a teammate's company as he got away from autograph hounds and into a nice downtown apartment.  Hard to blame the kid.

Cheat Factor: 3/10

Once again USC's nose is clean here-no boosters, no athletic department money.  Leinart and Jarrett didn't play the NCAA's poverty game and their "benefit" was getting away from campus and having a family member of one of the roommates take care of a part of the rent.  That's how many college students get by, needing an extra few dollars from family and friends.  Problem is it's frowned upon by the reptilian rulemakers in Indianapolis.

The NCAA's amateur policies: ugly, cold-blooded, and lethal.  Ask Jeremy Bloom 

Sanction Factor: 5/10

This looks like some kind of a violation, albeit a minor one.  I'm assuming at worst, Jarrett has to repay a share of his rent and maybe miss a game or two.  That said, USC finally investigated this and is playing it off as a minor matter.

3)Mark Sanchez Sexual Assault Investigation

Mark Sanchez is USC's highly regarded backup quarterback.  He was arrested April 27 by the LAPD on suspicion of sexual assault, and later released on $200,000 bail.  He has yet to be charged, but has a court date set for May. 17.

Smell Factor: Uknown

Sexual assault encompasses a lot of acts---none of which are tolerable but certainly not all are considered forms of rape and are often benign in comparison (for example, a single improper, uninvited touch can be cause for sexual assault charges).  Because the LAPD has been so vague and charges have yet to be filed, this story is still very much unknown.  Sanchez' arrest normally should raise serious red flags, but it's my understanding that current LAPD policy is to immediately arrest anyone accused of sexual assault, site unseen if an accusation is made.

Cheat Factor: 0/10

Duh.

Sanction Factor: 0/10 NCAA; 4/10 District Attorney

The NCAA doesn't have any say on this case, but the Los Angeles District Attorney's office certainly does.  I believe the delay in specific allegations points to a potentially weak case here.  USC beat writer/persistent critic Scott Wolf's doesn't think much of the allegations either, based on items published on his blog.  As HP has noted, sexual assault and rape allegations rarely find much success against athletes, or in the courts in general.

Even if he survives the sexual assault allegations, Sanchez is not in the clear.  Security cameras place him in an off-campus watering hole, underage, having used a fake ID.  USC's Student Affairs office will have some oversight into future punishments, and he's been temporarily suspended from school (although he was allowed to take his final exams).

It is my assumption that USC coach Pete Carroll will make an example out of Sanchez, and include some form of game suspensions and "doghouse" benching likely to affect much of his 2006 season.  The same thing happened to USC tailback Hershel Dennis, who in 2004 violated a team curfew rule and was investigated and later cleared in another sexual assault case at USC.  He would record just 28 carries that year, after carrying the ball 137 times in 2003.  In other words I think Sanchez's 2006 season is effectively over barring a substantial injury to de facto starter John David Booty.