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Thursday's Picks

Posted on Thursday, August 31, 2006 at 01:26PM by Registered CommenterCFR in | Comments1 Comment

First things first, I don't have a pick between Buffalo and Temple.  But, I think it should be interesting to see how the game unfolds between two legitimately bad D-I teams.  We are always witness to slaughter in college football when you see the ticker go across the screen showing Oklahoma 70, Sad Sack U 3.  However, games like this don't come along very often.

I'm really curious how the three MAC schools will do against BCS foes (Miami of Ohio vs. Northwestern, Kent State vs. Minnesota and Toledo at Iowa State).  Two of the three are playing before home crowds and in the early-season anything can happen with teams so untested.

There's no sensible way to make a pick between Northwestern and Miami (OH) with all the emotion involved and Northwestern's coaching turnover.  I wouldn't touch that one with a ten foot pole.

Kent State was terrible last year, but had undergone some turnover and the inconsistency that comes with installing a new offense.  They should be much improved (Phil Steele's all over them), but probably not improved, or talented enough, to overtake a Minnesota team looking for somebody, anybody, to take the lead at running back for its vaunted run attack.  That game has the strong potential to surprise with the Gophers replacing several quality offensive linemen and 3/4 if it's starting defensive line.  I'll be cautious here and side with the Gophers.

The best battle is between legitimate bowl teams Toledo and Iowa State.  Iowa State's set for a fine year and are well coached.  They will be decided favorites.  Toledo is replacing a star quarterback in Bruce Gradkowski, but have found a winning consistency in the last two seasons and should show well but in the end lose here.

In the most-hyped game of the day, South Carolina heads to Starkville and Mississippi State.  The Bulldogs have a persistent defense and little else.  That should keep them in the ball game for a while, but will be outgunned by South Carolina.  You can't win if you can't score.

Finally, in the late game we have San Diego State hosting UTEP.  Surprisingly, the Aztecs are modest favorites with the gambling set.  I like UTEP here.  They were wildly inconsistent last year but if there's one thing we know about a Palmer, it's that he will find a way to have a glorious senior season.  Younger brother Jordan's quest starts here.  SDSU has a little more overall talent here, but I like Mike Price's coaching over new Aztec boss Chuck Long.  Fear not Aztec Fans, as this is probably the best SDSU team in many years.  They should continue to be favored in all but a handful of matches this year.

So, in summary:

Minnesota over Kent State
Iowa State over Toledo
South Carolina over Mississippi State
UTEP over San Diego State

Also, here's a good link with live updated odds from 14 Las Vegas sportsbooks and two offshore books.

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Reader Comments (1)

Very nice calls for the opening night, CFR.

Your quote "You can't win if you can't score." in reference to Mississippi State - best prediction line of the night.

I need to add that Buffalo AND New Mexico State both won on the same evening. I'd wager it has been quite along time since that happened in College football.
September 1, 2006 | Unregistered CommenterLED

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