2007 Out of Conference Schedules: Pac-10 Edition
Thursday, January 18, 2007 at 12:25PM This might have to evolve into a series so we can do some side-by-sides. Maybe.
Missing data (read: can anyone fill in the blanks?):
1)Cal's OOC slate (we know they host Tennessee, but the rest is unannounced) UPDATED2)Oregon State's OOC slate (they've announced a home game against Utah but also two open dates, similar to Auburn) UPDATED
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Final Count: 30 out-of-conference (OOC) games for all Pac-10 teams in 2007 (remember that the league went to a round-robin format last year, adding a conference game and holding at 3 OOC's per team).
Of those 30, we have 20 home games (.667) one neutral game and nine road games (.300).
Games against BCS conference opponents (and Notre Dame): 10/30 (.333)
Of those games against BCS conference opponents, five are at home (.500) and five are on the road (.500).
The Pac-10 has lined up just one (.036) out-of-conference game against teams that aren't in D-IA.
The Pac-10's softer part of the schedule remains superior to the host of gimmes against the Sun Belt the SEC compiled. If I had to call for some outright gimme's they would be matchups against Idaho (twice), New Mexico (twice), San Diego State, Colorado State, LaTech, UNLV and non D-IA creampuff NAU. That's 9 of the 30 announced OOC games (.300).
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Opponents by conference:
ACC - 0 (!!!)
Big East - 1 (Syracuse)
Big 12 - 2 (Colorado, Nebraska)
Big Ten - 3 (Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin)
SEC - 1 (Tennessee)
Independents - 3 (Notre Dame x 3)
Mountain West - 11 (BYU x 2, SDSU x 2, Utah x 2, New Mexico x 2, TCU, Colorado State, UNLV)
WAC - 7 (San Jose State x 2, Idaho x 2, Boise State, Fresno State, Louisiana Tech)
Conference USA - 1 (Houston)
Sun Belt - 0
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Games I like:
Arizona State/Colorado, Cal/Tennessee, Oregon/Houston, Oregon/Michigan, Stanford/TCU, UCLA/Notre Dame, USC/Nebraska, USC/Notre Dame, Washington/Boise State, Washington/Ohio State, Washington State/Wisconsin.
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Per usual, I'll add the actual OOC schedules below in my first comment/reply to this entry.
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Previous: 2007 Out of Conference Schedules: SEC Edition
OOC Scheduling, Pac-10
Reader Comments (19)
All games home unless noted with (N) Neutral or (R) Road.
Arizona - BYU (R), Northern Arizona, New Mexico
ASU - San Jose State, Colorado, SDSU
Cal - Tennessee, Open, Open
Oregon - Houston, Michigan (R), Fresno State
Oregon State - Utah, Open, Open
Stanford - San Jose State, TCU, Notre Dame
UCLA - BYU, Utah (R), Notre Dame
USC - Idaho, Nebraska (R), Notre Dame (R)
Washington - Syracuse (R), Boise State, Ohio State
Washington State - Wisconsin (R), SDSU (N), Idaho
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I think your opinion on "outright gimmes" may have some debate. I'd argue that Troy is probably as good or better a program right now than a few of the teams on this list that you don't describe as a "gimme". Actually, I think I'd take issue with any describing of teams 8 months from training camp as a "gimme" (save the 1-AA teams). You don't describe Fresno State as such, but they were clearly that last year. A year ago, you probably would've described San Jose State as a gimme, but they turned out to be decent. As well, the BCS/Non-BCS line isn't clear. Syracuse and Colorado (though I think they'll be better than the last few years) might not be as good as BYU or Boise State. But the key word is "might". Nobody knows how good any team is going to be next year. Nobody thought an OOC game against Wake Forest would be anything but a gimme a year ago, and they rolled into the Orange Bowl. If you saw Iowa as an OOC opponent last year, you'd think they'd be tough - turns out they were mediocre and pretty beatable (the same can be said for dozens of teams over the last few years - Tennessee 05 is one in particular). I think schedule strength is something that can be analyzed after the fact to some precision. But 8 months beforehand (before we know even the recruiting classes that are entering, let alone NFL attrition, academic casualties, injuries, training camp attrition, starting job battles in camp, even some more coaching changes, etc.) schedule analysis can only give so much information (grant the 1-AA teams argument).
For example, take Washington's and Arkansas's non-conf. schedules:
Washington: at Syracuse, Boise St, Ohio St.
Arkansas: Troy, N. Texas, UT-Chattanooga, FIU
Washington's is arguably the toughest in the nation, while Arkansas's is one of the worst. I think it's reasonable to say that Washington will go 1-2 against non-conf. teams, while Arkansas will go 4-0. So, in terms of national rankings, bowl invitations, etc, is it better to play such a brutal schedule?
If I were a Washington fan I'd rather have that schedule and suffer any losses instead of being an overrated eight win team or whatever.
Yes bowls, rankings etc. disfavor the teams that don't game the system, but at the end of the day it's just not a big deal to me. I want to see teams tested, see what they can do against someone they don't play regularly and I'd rather see it in both the regular season and postseason.
Our schedule is so short, why do the fans a disservice with garbage games?
Well this is a very light analysis here. Your Fresno/San Jose Example is a good one but is probably more the exception than the rule. There's a certain reliability to some teams/leagues. We know the Sun Belt is Godawful. We know Vanderbilt is a gimme for most power teams. We know Fresno's going to be tough (last year aside). We know dipping into the WAC against anyone not named Fresno State and Sun Belt is poaching if you're from a BCS conference. Sometimes exceptions emerge to that as you've pointed out.
As for analysis, I understand that what you're doing isn't making the firmest of statements, and I don't think that these posts are etched in stone either. But at the same time, I think there's a natural response to take numbers like this and equate it to some greater meaning than maybe you even intend. I really think it's sometimes difficult to tell how good a team is _during the season_, let alone 8 months ahead of time. The things you say we "know", we might not.
The Sun Belt might _seem_ terrible, but Troy dominated in their bowl this year (and they've beaten or scared BCS teams before - ask Missouri with Brad Smith a few years ago). MTSU played in a bowl with a rookie coach and could be a lot better next year.
We might _think_ Vandy is a gimme for most teams (though they'd fit in the "games against BCS conferences" category in the analysis), but if Wake Forest can win 11 games and go to a BCS bowl, why can't Vandy go 8-4 (and I've got a good amount of faith in their coach, too)?
We _knew_ Fresno State was going to be tough last year too, and they weren't at all. They might bounce back great this year, but they also might not. You say we _know_ that dipping into the WAC against someone not named Fresno State (I'm guessing you meant to say Boise State instead of "Sun Belt") is poaching, but is that really true? Hawaii was a very good team last year and could be even better this year (Purdue surely didn't poach them). Nevada was decent too (ask Miami). Even you don't describe San Jose State as a "gimme" above, and they're in the WAC.
The thing is that there are so many exceptions that I honestly think it's pretty hard to say that there are any rules that tell us all that much right now. Nobody knows with any certainty how good any team is going to be next year - from the great teams all the way down to the supposed dregs.
Well, if I were an AD, my answer would be: $$$$$$. Why play a team that wants a return trip, when I can sell out my stadium against creampuffs and keep an extra home game?
Don't get me wrong, I think non-conf. schedules like Arkansas's are terrible, and I'd like to see BCS-conference teams play 12 games against legitimate competition. And fortunately, most programs' schedules have been tougher since the advent of the 12-game schedule. But I can see why these programs play a couple of cupcakes, too.
You must complete the discussion with the quality of the in-conference schedule and the addition of a championship game. When you add these components, the SEC teams obviously play a tougher schedule.
And yes, UW added Hawaii although I'm not sure if it's a 13th game or not. This is why I should have waited on producing this.
"The Pac-10's softer part of the schedule remains superior to the host of gimmes against the Sun Belt the SEC compiled"
You can't say "I don't have a point".