CFR's 2007 Top 25 Countdown: 21-25
Monday, August 27, 2007 at 08:00AM Counting down College Football Resource's preseason top 25 teams.
As always, this is a "power" ranking reflecting team quality over expectations relative to schedule. I assembled this list a few weeks ago and am not intellectually bound to it as the on-field and off-field events of the season will obviously dictate future rankings. Frankly it's difficult to rank teams beyond the top 10-15. There are many many teams who are within range of these rankings, so fear not neglected fan. Enjoy.
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(25) - Wisconsin
Briefly: We've seen this formula before - run the ball, stop the run, limit turnovers. Ohio State is now on the schedule and Michigan more or less had its way with the Badgers last year. Where's the beef?
Phil Steele Says: The Badgers (last year) had 29.2 ppg, their 2nd best total in the last 6 years. This year they have 9 returning starters but must replace QB Stocco and franchise LT Thomas. The D was the key to their success, allowing a paltry 253 ypg and 12.1 ppg. They have 7 starters back on the stop unit. This year, NW is replaced with Ohio St on the schedule. This is the Badgers' best team in the last 3 years and despite 3 tough road games, they are a Big 10 and National Title contender.
Preseason Consensus: No. 8 nationally, No. 2 Big Ten
(24) - Florida State
Briefly: New assistant coaches, new attitude, improving defense. It will take a while to return to top 10 form but for once this team's made some adjustments. Mickey Andrews always has a great defense but this team won't get better until its offense does.
Phil Steele Says: This year they have 14 returning starters tying for the most veteran group that Bowden has had since their National Title in 1999! After not having averaged below 30 ppg since 1981, they have averaged just 25.2, 28.9 and 26.5 ppg the last 3 years. With 6 starters back, I look for them to top 30 ppg. The defense has 8 starters back from a group that allowed just 291 ypg last year and figures to be one of the ACC's best. FSU does only have five home games and must play Clemson, BC VT and Florida on the road as well as Bama at a neutral site. Despite their worst ever ACC record last year (3-5), they still outgained ACC foes by 42 ypg (3rd best!). Last year's team had just 9 scholarship seniors and this year's has 18. Seventeen true frosh played in '06 (most in NCAA!). Bowden has assembled a killer schedule but I rate the 'Noles a National Title contender.
Preseason Consensus: No. 19 (tie) nationally, No. 1 ACC Atlantic Division
(23) - Virginia Tech
Briefly: Fans around the country want to see this team do great things. The Hokies play almost exactly like Wisconsin There are some great athletes on defense and they'll try to beat you on the ground and in special teams. It's safe and wins games but dynamic offenses come in handy when you need a bail-out. Sean Glennon to date has been a subpar quarterback and there's little beyond Branden Ore with the running game. I see some major offensive struggles ahead.
Phil Steele Says: VT has 8 starters back on offense, their most since 2000 (40.3 ppg) and should easily top last year's 25.8 ppg (lowest S/'92). Foster's defense allowed just 219 ypg (#1 in NCAA) and that was with 5 starters back. This year 8 are returning! VT does have to play LSU, Clemson and GTech on the road and also draws Florida St out of the Atlantic Division. Despite the tough schedule, if they beat LSU on Sept. 8th, mark VT Down as prime National Title contender.
Preseason Consensus: No. 6 Nationally, No. 1 ACC Coastal Division
(22) - Iowa
Briefly: Iowa?! Sure, why not. Drew Tate was great at times but regressed and wore on people. In steps sophomore Jake Christensen who is a little more of a pocket guy with some mobility and is more level-headed. The defensive line could be special and for once there's a playmaker at receiver in Andy Brodell. Assuming tailback Albert Young can stay healthy this is easily one of Ferentz's best Iowa squads and they should be among the top 25 again. The schedule's as friendly as it was in 2002 as well (no Ohio State or Michigan).
Phil Steele Says: This year they must replace 5 starters on offense including QB Tate but their 23.8 ppg was their lowest total since 2000. The D has 8 starters back. If you read pg 312 you will see that their -11 in turnovers is a good sign for 2007 as was their 2 net close losses. Both Ohio State and Michigan drop off the schedule this year. After a rare losing season (6-7), the Hawkeyes look like a team capable of double digit wins.
Preseason Consensus: Unranked, No. 38 overall, No. 5 Big Ten.
(21) - Oregon State
Briefly: This pick isn't looking so hot several weeks later. The Beavers have lost wayward superstar receiver Sammie Stroughter indefinitely and 16 frosh either failed to qualify or were grayshirted and cannot enroll until January. Their quarterback battle remains unsettled and instead of choosing a leader, they're apparently going to play both. Ack. All that said, this team should be competitive within the Pac-10, has playmakers in all three defensive units, has a great offensive line, runs the ball, throws the ball --- there's a lot to like, excluding those hideous new uniforms.
Phil Steele Says: This year the Beavers have 16 returning starters which is tied with last year for the most they've had since 1998. They must replace QB Moore and TE Newton along with 1st Tm Pac-10 SS Sabby Piscitelli. They most troubling factor is that OSU was +4 in net close wins last year and +8 in turnovers. On the positive side, the D led the Pac-10 in sacks and the returning players accounted for 41 of the team's 47 sacks. Riley should have his team in the post season once again.
Preseason Consensus: Unranked, No. 30 overall, No. 5 Pac-10.
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Reader Comments (9)
Do you really feel they're better than all but four other teams around the country? Remember I go by power rankings, not how I expect a team to perform to its schedule. Otherwise I'd have Hawaii or Boise State #1.
Check out MGoBlog's Wisconsin preview, it its at a lot of the same weaknesses I see in the Badgers.
You've lost me for the rest of this joke.
VT used to have a real knack for manufacturing points but not so much recently. There's shaky tailback depth behind Ore and while he's good he's been spotty at putting together more than one or two solid games in a row. The running element is gone from the quarterback position and this year's tight ends don't appear to be anywhere as good as those they're used to having. Throw in two sophomores and two juniors on the offensive line and I see a lot of trouble for them on that side of the ball.
That run defense is going to get tested in a five-week season-ending stretch against Boston College, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami and Virginia. Miami and Georgia Tech proved last year they can be run on a little.
This is a good team but not one who can dominate on both sides of the ball consistently.
Scedule strength is an issue. If they had Hawaii, Ohio State, or, Boise State's schedule they would probably be in the BCS MNC game.
In reality they were probably one of the top 10-15 defenses, not THE best defense in the NCAA.
Eight starters back on a bad offense is still eight starters back on a bad offense. Just watching them, it's apparent these aren't the Hokies of yesteryear that could almost magically score points in spite of themselves. Glennon just isn't a dynamic player and Ore has no sufficient backup. The tight end is always a big part of their offense and I just didn't see much out of the position last year. I just don't think they have what it takes on that side of the ball anymore to be that top 10 team everyone thinks they are.
A handful of ACC teams look like they'll improve on offense this year also, and should be able to actually challenge the Hokie defense this time around. As it was, Miami and Georgia Tech had solid rushing games against VT last year without any semblance of a pass attack and should be much more dangerous this time around.
This team's good, obviously, but just not to where I see them in the top 10. Remember this is the preseason and as I stated above, what I see watching the games and somewhat in the numbers will dictate how I rank after this, I'm not beholden to my preseason rankings.