CFR's 2007 Top 25 Countdown: 16-20
Wednesday, August 29, 2007 at 01:00PM Counting down College Football Resource's preseason top 25 teams.
As always, this is a "power" ranking reflecting team quality over expectations relative to schedule. I assembled this list a few weeks ago and am not intellectually bound to it as the on-field and off-field events of the season will obviously dictate future rankings. Frankly it's difficult to rank teams beyond the top 10-15. There are many many teams who are within range of these rankings, so fear not neglected fan. Enjoy.***
(20) - Hawaii
Briefly: The Warriors return a record-setting "system" quarterback ... with a first-round grade. Which is it, system guy or Natural? Whatever, he's back and returns nearly all his receivers and backs. Defense is optional (matador?) but this is obviously a quality football team capable of spanking someone like Arizona State especially on home turf. Coach June Jones knows Hawaii isn't going to get many seasons with this kind of opportunity and in theory he takes advantage of this blessing.
Phil Steele Says: The biggest news for UH is that Brennan turned down a shot at the NFL and returns with his top 3 WR's as well. The offense has 6 starters back and he should be one of the NCA's best. Last year UH had to play Boise and Fresno on the road and this year get them both at home. Their 11 wins matched a school record for wins in a year (1992, 11-2). I will call for the Warriors to break the school record for wins as all 8 sets of my power rankings call for an undefeated season. My major question mark on the schedule is Nov. 16th when they have to play Nevada at night, in the cold on a short week. If they survive that test, they will live up to my expectation of making a BCS bowl this season.
Preseason Consensus: No. 23 nationally, No. 1 WAC.
(19) - Georgia
Briefly: In Stafford They Trust, or so the thinking goes. The Dawgs improved immensely in the final few weeks of last season and momentum dictates that it will launch them to a better start this year. Problems: serious questions at offensive line, worries at linebacker, fresh faces on the offensive line. Coach Richt is talking a big game about improvement this year and the play of Matt Stafford. They'll need it. This looks like a good not great team to me.
Phil Steele Says: Last year's offense struggled greatly in the 1H of the year and even in the bowl in which they put up 31 points, as they had just 9 FD's. They avg'd just 25 ppg, their worst S/'98 but have 7 starters back. They have just 4 starters back on D and lose 6 of their top 9 tacklers but Martinez should come up with another top-notch unit. UGA out-gained SEC foes by 54.6 ypg last year (3rd best) and have a great shot at winning their 2nd SEC Title in 3 years.
Preseason Consensus: No. 15 (tie) nationally, No. 3 SEC East.
(18) - Nebraska
Briefly: The Bill Callahan agenda at Nebraska has been slow but steady progress. This team is finally cleared of its option ways and the roster features his own players throughout. The overall talent is now respectable but not elite but they welcome in an outstanding mercenary quarterback in Sam Keller (late of Arizona State). The defensive line loses its front four but there's surprising production and experience from the new faces. The schedule is challenging with Wake Forest, USC, Missouri, Texas A&M and Texas but for the first time in a few years the Huskers should manage most of it. Consecutive losses to Oklahoma and Auburn hurt momentum but this team should also recognize that it's way ahead of last year's outfit. The light punishment of wayward receiver Maurice Purify is just another sign that the big program mentality is back in Lincoln.
Phil Steele Says: They year they have 6 starters back on offense and while they must replace QB Taylor, Keller had great success at Arizona St. The Blackshirt defense has just 5 starters back but does return 4 of their top 5 tacklers. It was good to see the Huskers back in a BCS bowl (first Jan bowl since 2001). Even with USC and Texas on the schedule (2nd year in a row), I give the Huskers a great shot at topping last year's 9 wins. Their Oct 6th meeting at Missouri is the key to the Big 12 North Title.
Preseason Consensus: No. 19 nationally, No. 1 Big 12 North.
(17) - TCU
Briefly: Everyone's preseason non-BCS spoiler, the Horned Frogs made waves after thrashing Northern Illinois to open the bowl season. Two elite elite elite defensive ends return in Alonzo Spellman-like Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz. This program under Gary Patterson has shown the ability to knock off a few big boys and control their own conference. The first line of business here is always defense and it should be another above average effort stop unit this season. Shifty, speedy Aaron Brown will be the offensive centerpiece as the coaches went with Andy Dalton at quarterback over the more experienced and athletic Marcus Jackson. The Sept. 8 meeting with Texas could be a date with destiny although I have my doubts.
Phil Steele Says: TCU has beaten an amazing 4 Big 12 teams over the last 2 years including 2 ranked squads. This year they have just 5 starters back on offense and must replace QB Ballard and top WR Harmon. It will be tough to match last year's 29.2 ppg. The defense figures to be the MWC as they return 9 starters from a unit that allowed just 12.3 ppg, their best total since 2000 (235 ypg over last 8). TCU has not allowed a 100 yard rusher in 20 games. The Frogs are 34-5 at home since 2000 and they have 4 undefeated seasons at home this decade. They have had FIVE Top 25 finishes in the last 7 years! While the Frogs must play both Texas and BYU on the road, I give them a solid shot at another 11-1 in season and they are my pick to win the MWC.
Preseason Consensus: No. 21 nationally, No. 1 Mountain West.
(16) - Tennessee
Briefly: Things still aren't quite right in Knoxville but the Vols will press on behind potentially great quarterback Erik Ainge. There are some solid names on the defense and a lot of guys who have underperformed to date. It's a bad sign that the team's possession receivers have badly outplayed the explosive recruits and transfers. LaMarcus Coker's suspension is frustrating as well, as plugger Arian Foster can do little more than keep the running game afloat when Coker's out (bring on Hardesty and Creer!). All that said, there's plenty of talent here and some breaks are bound to go the Vols' way.
Phil Steele Says: They played a tough schedule in '06 with 5 foes ranked in the Top 13 and 9 of UT's opponents earned bowl bids with 7 winning. Last year's offense had 71% of their yards through the passing game, the highest % since '97 (Peyton Manning). The 108 ypg rushing was their lowest S/'64! A key to Ainge's success last year was the excellent WR play but the top 3 have departed. They have 6 offensive starters back but I still look for them to get back to the 30 ppg range. The D has just 5 starters back but is stronger in the front 7. The Vols were outgained by 26.3 ypg in SEC play. This year they play Fla, Cal and Bama on the road, but I give them a solid shot at topping 2006's 9-win total.
Preseason Consensus: No. 12 nationally, No. 2 SEC East.
***
Previously at College Football Resource:
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