With Michigan and Ohio State running 1-2 right now it appears the Rose Bowl will fail to match up the champion of the Pac-10 and the Big Ten once again.

One of these years they'll get it right.  It was accidentally brilliant in 2003 when USC and Michigan met in a National Championship game that was also a traditional Rose Bowl battle.  Hopefully it'll work out next year, because there's something wrong with Rose Bowl games featuring Washington State and Oklahoma or Miami and Nebraska.

That said, we may end up having the loser of Ohio State/Michigan playing Cal or USC just the same.  Correct me if I'm wrong on that because I'm unfamiliar with this year's bowl allocation terms, so that matchup might not even be possible depending on what order the bowl committees choose available teams.  It would certainly bring back some of the tradition but in all likelihood the true Big Ten champion will be playing in the Fiesta Bowl, robbing an otherwise great matchup of some of its prestige.

Jackson Williams at the FanHouse posits that in 2010, it will be the same three teams at the top of the Pac-10: USC, California and Oregon.

I disagree.

It's 2006 right now, so we're talking four and a half seasons outward projection, nearly half a decade.  If there's one thing we know about the Pac-10 it's that the league evolving.  Every single team has won a conference title in the last 15 or so years.  In 1998 and 2000, USC was on the ropes, looking for a new coach.  In 1996 and 2005, the Trojans were playing in major bowl games.  Ty Willingham left Stanford for Notre Dame and returned to Washington in that span of time.  UCLA's had a 20-game winning streak and national title hopes and now sits mired in mediocrity.  Oregon State won a BCS game and is now in the dumps.  Things happen all the time in the league, that's just how things work.

USC is poised to stay near the top, but are already showing some cracks.  California looked to be on the decline last year, and are now the presumptive conference favorite.  Oregon was on the ropes until they hired Gary Crowton to run their offense last year and suddenly they're among the conference elite.

Constant evolution is the way of the league in recent years, and that looks to continue.

Additionally, we know one big thing: Washington and UCLA won't be on the lagwagon forever.  More than any other conference schools not named USC, those two are established programs with big names and enough winning tradition to get up to speed in a hurry with improved coaching or recruiting.  Count on a rebound from one or both within the next five years.

I believe USC has the talent and momentum and Cal the coaching to remain key figures in the league for a few more years, but everything else is fluid.  Job openings may emerge soon enough at Stanford, Oregon State and Arizona State, tremendous opportunities all for a quality coach to be hired and compete within the league and nationally.  To project any stability at the top of this particular league is usually guesswork, at best, no matter the logic and justification.

Nobody knew Cal would emerge just five years ago, or USC for that matter, but here they are.  The big questions now are 1)how long can they keep this up, 2)who will emerge to take their place and 3)how will their successors have done it?

Those two are simply the next in line in having replaced the old order before them (such as the Northwest Revolution in the early 2000's, UCLA, Arizona and Stanford in the late 1990's, etc. etc. etc.).

Be sure and take a gander at this article about the SEC from GatorBait.net's Guerry Smith.

Outstanding, fair, and far from inflammatory.

*Mythical* national champion, of course.

Earlier today I predicted the BCS conference champions, now it's time for the national champion.  To be consistent, it makes sense to narrow the field to any of the conference titleists assuming some non-BCS team doesn't insert itself into the title picture.

Those expected conference finalists are:

ACC-Miami
Big East-Louisville
Big Ten-Ohio State
Big 12-Texas
Pac 10-California
SEC-Auburn

It's a bit innane to single out specific games where all these teams will trip up and anticipate voter behavior, so I won't do that to you.  I can look at that list, however, and tell you that Louisville and California are not strong contenders given the various biases inherent in college football that make it difficult for teams like those to play in a title game.  That said, I don't anticipate them being that good so as to make a legitimate case, anyhow.

Texas has history working against it with the frosh quarterback(s), so they're not a strong possibility, all things considered, particularly in having to win a title game.

That leaves Notre Dame, Miami, Auburn and Ohio State.

I believe USC will trip Notre Dame up in November, if the Irish haven't already recorded a loss before then.

Miami should be very strong but with a questionable run game and Kyle Wright not (yet) as good as he should be, they're bound to look a little weak in voters' eyes and might not be able to put together a strong title game performance.

Which leaves us with two teams, Auburn and Ohio State.  Sounds like a great championship battle, doesn't it?

Ohio State is my preseason No. 1 team this year so you know where I stand with them.  If they can survive a rough Big Ten slate it'll mean they've capably patched up their new faces in all the places defense.  They're 1-0 in championship games, and nobody plays close games better than them.  In what could be an epic game, I'm predicting a Buckeyes national championship at the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, scene of their last championship in January of 2003.

***
Please take this with a grain or two of salt, the only definitive answers will come once the season is played.

Today is the first day in that championship quest.  Welcome to college football 2006!

This will be abbreviated.  I had written a horribly long preview and... well that's just not easy consuption for a blog so I killed the poor piece.  My fingers are now swearing revenge and years of arthritis as payback for wasting their time.

What I can do is put together a quick list of names from that which disappeared into the electronic ether.

ACC---Miami.  Should have the nation's best defense and enough offense to outlast everyone else in the offensively-challenged ACC.  Florida State will stumble a few times, making Clemson the Atlantic Division champs.  They're good, but not good enough to unseat Miami in the title game.

Big East---Louisville.  Squandered away last year's great opportunity and choked away a 24-7 second half lead against West Virginia.  The Cardinals quietly added a handful of offensive and defensive transfers plus loudly welcomed back Heisman candidates Bush and Brohm.  Will win the revenge game against West Virginia.

Big Ten---Ohio State.  There will be a fantastic race for the Big Ten crown this year.  The Buckeyes are far from a guarantee, and the conference's midlevel teams (Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin) are all capable of playing spoiler to favorites Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa.

Big 12---Texas.  If this were a more competitive year within the conference I'd go with someone else.  Freshman quarterbacks are trouble if you're trying to go undefeated but the conference is down enough that nobody doubts Texas can do it.  Oklahoma or a surprise, completely impossible to predict upset are the only hurdles in the Longhorns' conference path.

Pac-10---California.  USC has to lose somewhere, and I don't see them losing to Arkansas or Nebraska.  They'll be at home against Notre Dame and should have a little payback in mind after the Irish did everything but resurrect the bones of poor Knute Rockne before last year's game.  That leaves California, set to roll through the rest of the conference assuming their quarterback plays well.  The only other worrisome game for the Bears is against Oregon, who nearly upset them in 2004 and came away with a 27-20 overtime victory last year.

SEC---Auburn.  The Auburn/LSU winner inevitably is the Western Division champ, and I'm going with Auburn.  Out East, Florida should have just enough to get by Georgia and Tennessee.  I see Auburn victorious over the Gators in the SEC title game.

Because at CFR, the Pac-10/SEC battle rages into perpetuity.

As always, these are power rankings, not the expected conference finishes of the respective teams.

1. Auburn---The defense is young and a bit small and must wait out the return of a few suspended players, but these Tigers look to be elite.  The offense has talent and depth at running back and a savvy system quarterback in Brandon Cox to score points and be just a notch better than most SEC teams.
2. Georgia---All this team does under coach Mark Richt is win ball games.  Expect more of the same this year, even with a pedestrian starting quarterback (current starter Joe Tereshinski III) and questions about their run defense.
3. Florida---The talent doesn't quite fit the scheme---yet---and the offensive line is questionable as well as the backs, but everything else looks good.  The Gators have an excellent defensive line and linebackers and a star defensive back to keep scores low and the veteran Chris Leak at quarterback to chip away with the offense.
4. Alabama---Better than you think.  This team is a little deeper than last year's unit and it would be almost impossible to play worse offensively.  Kenneth Darby's the offensive star at tailback, but keep an eye on several of his backups who can all make plays.  Freshman offensive tackle Andre Smith is a future top 10 NFL pick.
5. Arkansas---This is an improving team, but the Hogs aren't quite as talented as the four teams above them here.
6. LSU---I just don't see it this year, and maybe I'm wrong about this team, but we'll find out.  The Tigers lost a lot of good players along the lines, which will hurt.
7. South Carolina---Not all that talented, but another year under coach Spurrier means another year of improvement and understanding of what he demands of his teams can only help.
8. Tennessee---Could move up with improved quarterback play.  I like the defense but this team isn't the most cohesive around after last year's collapse.
9. Mississippi---A poor man's Tennessee, and they even have the Vols' former starting quarterback!
10. Vanderbilt---Only here because...
11. Kentucky---and...
12. Mississippi State---comprise a permanent underclass of the SEC.  Just as very little life exists at the bottom of oceans, no light shines on these four teams.

***
Previous:

• Ranking The Teams: Pac-10 

By request...

California @ Tennessee
September 2, 2006

It's the [tired stereotype] tree-huggers from Berkeley[/sterotype] against the [tired stereotype] yellow-tooth brigade[/stereotype] from Rocky Top.  Pac-10/SEC madness in week one.  Rejoice!

This game should be the most anticipated of the three Pac-10/SEC battles this year.  Cal is getting top-10 hype and Tennessee's looking to disassociate itself from the disaster that was last year's 5-6 season.  The Volunteers fired offensive coordinator Randy Sanders and replaced him with former OC David Cutcliffe.  As such people in Tennessee have delusional visions of 1998 and that ill-gotten national championship that immortalized two absolutely forgettable figures in college football: Clint Stoerner and Marcus Outzen.

Cal must also escape strange ghosts, namely that ouch ouch ouch heartless effort against Texas Tech in the 2004 Holiday Bowl.  Mind you Cal deserved to be in the Rose Bowl and didn't unfairly leverage its connections with conference coaches and media friends into a suspicious last-minute poll boost to get into the game, but that's neither here nor there.  This game's in September and neither team has yet been cheated of its prestige---so play ball.

Aside from the obvious homefield advantage, I hunch Tennessee's coaches will prepare for this game with a healthy dose of realism and sobriety.  They know that their offense is fitful at best, and unlikely to outgun what should be a talented and legitimate California defense.  Quarterback Erik Ainge has been adeqate at times but is mostly scattershot and neurotic behind center, the SEC's answer to last year's Cal starter: Joe Ayoob.  For their part, the Vol receivers dunk their hands in country crock before taking the field most Saturday afternoons.  That's a bad mix when you're up against a team that can score points in a hurry.

Never fear, though, the Volunteers usually have a good run game.  Except when they don't.  Like last year, this year may be another "don't".  Le sigh.

Sophomore Arian Foster came on strong with five hundred-yard efforts to finish the woeful 2005 season, but the SID's don't want you to know those efforts came against matador defenses (ole!) South Carolina, Notre Dame, Memphis, Vanderbilt and Kentucky.  Shhh.  Foster doesn't have the look or feel of another all-SEC, future NFL great back from Tennessee, though.  He's got good size and can handle the workload, but lacks burst, elusiveness and a nose for the open field.  He's the kid who can get steady B's on his report card but the Volunteers desperately need that "A" student in the backfield.  Foster's not that guy.

Both the Tennessee and Cal coaches know what's coming here: ball-control, nose to the grindstone running game from the Vols, eating the clock and the goal of gradually overwhelming the talented Cal defensive line with a little boost from that 100,000 seat stadium and the South's magnificently humid September evenings.  It could work, especially if Ainge is having a good day, but neither the strategy nor the idea of successful quarterback play is a guarantee.

For Cal, they're going to be facing a very fast and athletic Tennessee defense.  The Vols graduated three starters from last year's defensive line that was a top-10 unit against the run and will probably start a very young group of linebackers, but their secondary can legitimately rotate a good 7-8 players in the four DB spots without much dropoff.  The numbers game in the secondary plays to Tennessee's advantage, as Cal's receivers likely won't out-athlete/out-number Tennessee's DB's.  They'll have to win with scheme, efficient quarterback play and enough balance from the run game.

As of today it's still a little unclear who Cal's starting quarterback will be, but I hunch it will be Nate Longshore.  He has a good arm and is in his third year in coach Tedford's system.  He lacks experience and that may cost him at times in this game, but he has the tools around him to direct what could be one of the nation's most explosive offenses.  For all the hype about Cal's passing game and quarterbacks, the power run attack has long been their bread-and-butter.

The obvious name to mention here is Marshawn Lynch, possibly the NCAA's best back.  He's a herky-jerky runner, but has great speed, strength, size, vision... everything.

Injuries have shortened quite a few of his regular season appearances, but when he's in the game he's making plays averaging a ridiculous 8.8 and 6.4 YPC the last two seasons.  He's backed up by Justin Forsett, the West Coast answer to Northwestern's Tyrell Sutton.  Both are elite college running talents and should find ways to challenge Tennessee's defense.

The big question here is what condition Cal's offensive line will be in.  They lost three very good starters to the NFL and must adjust on the fly for this game.  Expect a few breakdowns that kill a handful of Golden Bear drives, but not enough to put the brakes to their fantastic offense.

With all that in mind, I'm favoring Cal here.  Tennessee isn't Texas Tech, they aren't going to surprise California here or dazzle them with an unfamiliar offensive attack.  The Vols are certainly a talented and proud team and should put up a fight in this game and could indeed make this a very close matchup, but I think their winning options are limited.  I'd be very surprised to see Cal's balanced, diverse and efficient offense held under say, 20-25 points.

But I'd be equally surprised to see Tennessee score that many.  In other words, their window of opportunity to claim victory here is narrow.  They'll probably try to win with ball control, turnovers and intimidation and sneak out a 3-7 point victory or pray for a Cal meltdown that pushes that margin upward and onward.  We don't know until the teams hit the field how the Cal players will react, how confident they'll perform and if they get psyched out of this game.  If they aren't, they should all but assure themselves of victory.  Their defense doesn't appear to be a pushover, and has All America candidates at defensive tackle and corner and one of the nation's finest sets of linebackers.  They'll make the Vols work on offense just as Tennessee's defense will challenge Cal.

However, Cal has an efficient offense with schematic balance and very good offensive talents in players like Lynch, like Forsett, like receivers DeSean Jackson and Robert Jordan and tight end Craig Stevens.  It's a fine group whereas the opponent continues to sort out its offensive woes in real time.

If Cal's intimidated this game can and will go south on them, but otherwise I simply don't see a consistent offensive threat materializing from the Volunteers.  Cal's not the stereotypical Pac-10 team that is all-pass, no toughness along the lines and no run game.  They play physical, they do run the ball, they do have depth and speed along the defense and have assembled what looks like a top 10 team for 2006.  That cannot be ignored.

In other words, this matchup looks more like the 2003 (USC 23 Auburn 0) Pac-10/SEC opening week battle than 2004's (LSU 22, Oregon State 21), in my eyes.

As always, these are power rankings.

Blame the non-prediction prediction on the Pac-10's bottom half, simmering in its own late stage syphilis induced psychosis.  Predictable, they're not.  Thus the frequency of the annoying, somewhat cop-out "TIE" in the list below.

What I do know is this whole tier concept.  In the world of home electronics, tis safer to side with Sony and Panasonic over impressively-named knockoffs.  In college football this means USC and Cal get the nod over UCLA and Stanford.

In the "I'm A Legit Top 10 Team" division, we have USC and California.  As a member of the chattering class I'm contractually obligated to mention these talking points about USC: lost two Heisman Trophy winners to the NFL and running back LenDale White, 3/5 of the offensive line from a team that lost its last game to Texas in the Rose Bowl, suffered through a tumultous offseason full of scandal but but but coach Pete Carroll is Hollywood yay and can recruit so this team is talented.  Of course none of that tells you anything about this year's team because that would require some thinking and we don't do that.  Cough.

Putting on my serious hat for a moment, USC is a team without an identity.  Are they going to reverse course and be on the defensive this year or is the offense going to set the world on fire again?  Or neither?  If one is determined they'll go far, if not, they'll be Florida State early 2000's: talented but woefully boring and with that diminishing dominance thing going on.

As for Cal, they should be in the top 10 this year.  Their offense had some issues last year that should remedy themselves with a new face at quarterback and a new OC hired from Northwestern.  Oh and that defense should be quite good with All-America candidates at defensive tackle and cornerback and a great group of linebackers.  It's 2004 all over again in the Pac-10.

After the obligatory USC/Cal references, the next tier in this conference is a close battle between Arizona State and Oregon.  The Duckies are coming off a 10-win season but graduate their steady-eddy quarterback Kellen Clemens and dominant DT Haloti Ngata.  I'm a little unsure how their defense will perform without the big man running interference, but the offense should be fantastic.  In the second year of a new spread look and the athletic Dennis Dixon at the helm, these Ducks will score, especially with a former No. 1 recruit in sophomore Jonathan Stewart in the backfield.

Arizona State has that two-quarterback monster thing going on and the coaches are content with young Keegan Herring running the ball.  Much like Oregon the question is with their defense.  Three defensive line imports and the addition of former elite recruit Mike Nixon to linebacker from a past life as a baseball player screams improvement.

These two can battle it out for a Holiday Bowl appearance and hopefully legitimate attempts at upsetting the USC/Cal juggernaut.

I have Washington State fifth in the conference.  Quarterback Alex Brink is developing into a fine quarterback, and with three touted JUCO backs and bowling ball DeMaundray Woolridge in the backfield, this team should have its best running game in a long time.  Throw in a defense that, like Cals, returns nearly every starter from a unit that was entirely inexperienced the year before, and the Cougars should make a move to the upper half of the conference.

And then... chaos.

The uncertainty at the bottom means there is little sediment of pushovers as happens in the SEC, but it wreaks havoc on predictions.

There's a lot of talk about Arizona this year, but I'm not buying just yet.  Quarterback Willie Tuitama is developing into a fine player and has good receivers to throw to, but Arizona's offensive line and run game remain huge concerns.  Defensively, they are coached by the much-hyped Mike Stoops, but the talent isn't quite there yet aside from the secondary and JUCO superstar Louis Holmes.

Stanford has what should be a phenomenal passing offense and an improving offensive line, but there isn't much running talent and the defense replaces many starters.  It wasn't a great defense to begin with, but a handful of talented players did depart.  Walt Harris is a quality coach who can get this team into the upper half of the conference, but it might not be this year.

After those two, we have UCLA.

The Bruins are among the most talented teams in the conference, but it's not a clear advantage for them anymore.  They graduate quarterback Drew Olson who had a fantastic senior season last year, but in steps former No. 1 quarterback recruit Ben Olson.  I have no idea what impact he'll have on the offense, but he has great talent and the team's fate is very much in his ability to make them better than they have been.  The defense looks sad, particularly at linebacker and defensive line, but they're playing the "new attitude" card with the import of vagabond defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker.  We'll see where that takes them, but the available talent isn't very encouraging.

Like UCLA, Washington's fate is very much in the hands of their quarterback.  I'm excited about the prospects of Isaiah Stanback this year as he's a team leader and greatly developed as a passer.  They lost a hotshot running prospect to academics, but if healthy Louis Rankin may be consistent and reliable enough to give the running game some life.

Finally, I have Oregon State as the worst team in the conference.  Mike Riley's return to Corvallis has been a disappointment and there's little to suggest this team is on the ascendant.

1. USC
2. Cal
3. TIE Arizona State
4. TIE Oregon
5. Washington State
6. TIE Stanford
7. TIE Arizona
8. UCLA
9. Washington
10. Oregon State 

That's the speculation within the Pac-10 coaching circle.

The LA Daily News' Scott Wolf reports that Pac-10 coaches unanimously object to a new rule change regarding change of possession.

The coaches object that on a change of possession, the clock will now start when the official signals, not when the ball is snapped.

The rule is expected to shorten games by 10-12 minutes and coaches object that it could knock 10-12 plays out of a game. It also means that if a team takes over possession with 24 seconds left in a game, it would not need to even snap the ball.

Every Pac-10 coach opposed the rule change.

"We signed a petition and sent it off,’’ Bellotti said.

Said Carroll: "When you might throw 38 times in a game, now it be only 32. It’s a sad situation when there is such across the board disappointment by the coaches and the rule still gets changed.’’

I can understand fans' frustration with long games (they tend to last about four hours), but the byproduct of attempts to shorten games is now falling not on advertisers but on the product on the field.  This is dangerous territory for the NCAA and they may regret having made some of these changes.

Anecdotally, I was a bit perplexed at last year's Rose Bowl.  Anytime anything of significance would happen on the field, the game would shut down as the television broadcast would go to some lengthy commercial.  It completely disrupted the rhythm of the game for both teams and left many an antsy and bored fan in the stadium.

Instead of taking things out on the fans perhaps the NCAA could find some cooperation with advertisers to mitigate their excessive influence on the length of games.

That said, I enjoy long games.  It means each individual game is an experience, to be enjoyed throughout the course of the afternoon and evening.  The repeated interruptions get annoying, but college football is a long game to begin with and I have little trouble with that.  I love the rule that the clock doesn't run until officials set the ball on first down, for example.  The NCAA has smartly avoided tinkering with that part of the game, but now they're meddling in others.

To be continued... 

***
Update:

The Wiz has more 

I know the offseason is long.  Interminably long.

But nothing represents the eternal goodness of the offseason like hope.

See here: "How Can Georgia Tech Win A Championship In 2006?"

Before a down is ever played, we as fans can have these dreams, these visions of what is to come and what might or might not be.  And then in four swift and furious months dreams are tempered as reality moves its moody self in.  But oh, what a rush, good or bad.

But now is not that time, it is the time for the dreamer, the man thinking about the hypothetical.

I don't mean to deride In Dodd We Trust.  In fact, I love the blog.  And he sort of has a point.

It's all but a certitude Georgia Tech won't win a national championship this year.  They're just as unlikely to contend for one.  But he understands the road map for how they get there, succinctly outlined in his entry.  Things like "go 11-1", "beat every North Carolina school", "Clemson doesn't win the Atlantic Division" and "no inexplicable losses" are but a few of the conditions for success.

But dadgummit, the kids from the engineering school have a chance.  They're fortunate enough to have a slate of powerhouses on their schedule, and if they win those games, they're destined to come close to a title.  Notre Dame and Georgia are OOC foes, and both are likely to finish the year in the top 10.  Tech will also face Miami and buzzworthy Clemson in ACC action.

Chances are many of those teams will bury the Yellowjackets' hopes, but you never know for sure until the games are played.  And what better way to contend for a title than to play a bunch of bullies and beat them?

That said, I wouldn't put a preseason penny on them, but plenty of others will.

That's hope.

This is part seven of seven in an ongoing analysis of eight years of "turnover margin" data at the various BCS conference schools.

Notre Dame

(+7,-4,+12,+3,+5,+2,+5,+10) Grand Total: +40

Bob Davie is responsible for the first four years of data, Tyrone Willingham the next three and Charlie Weis the final one.  An easily identifiable pattern with Davie emerges.  Rising margin, good record, declining margin, poor record.  The 1998 squad finished at +7 and a 9-3 record.  The next year the Irish went to -4 and the record fell to 5-7.  They then jumped to +12 and improved to 9-3 before dropping to +3 and 5-6.  Willingham benefited greatly from a defense that forced timely turnovers his first season.  That team would finish at +5 and had a 10-3 record.  He was able to maintain a positive turnover margin all three seasons in South Bend (overall +12) but the Irish record would fall to 5-7 and 6-6.  Charlie Weis boosted the turnover margin to +10 last year thanks to an efficient quarterback and an opportunistic defense, and the Irish rebounded to 9-3.

Army

(-3,-4,-6,-16,-14,-20,+3,-2) Grand Total: -62

Wow, eight years of data, just one positive return.  Such is life for any Academy school that cannot effectively run a gimmick offense to compensate for the obvious talent gap between themselves and other powerhouse D-I football programs.  Bob Sutton owns the first two totals, Todd Berry the next four and Bobby Ross the last two.  In 1998 (the first year of data presented here) the Black Knights went 3-8, but were two seasons removed from a 10-2 effort.  They followed that up with another 3-8 season and Sutton was gone in favor of Todd Berry.  Berry would win just five games in his four-year stay with Army, including an 0-13 season in 2003 (-20 turnovers).  The wheels clearly fell off and the turnover numbers don't hide it (-16,-14,-20).  Bobby Ross was hired to probably make the last coaching stop in his respectable career.  He's stopped the bleeding as far as turnovers goes, and the team has gone 2-9 and 4-7 in his first two tries.

Navy

(-11,+7,-5,-6,-14,+7,+3,-6) Grand Total: -25

Navy's story isn't as sad as Army's.  Charlie Weatherbie was coach for the first four years of available data, Paul Johnson the last four.  Weatherbie's decline is represented here, as Navy had gone from 3-8 to 5-6 to 9-3 his first three seasons before an inevitable plummet from 1998 onward.  They would go 3-8 (-11), 5-7 (+7), 1-10 (-5) and 0-10 (-6) to close out his run.  Paul Johnson has worked miracles, implementing a frustrating option attack that has boosted the Middies' hopes and record.  They started out rough, at 2-10 (-14) but have since gone 8-5 (+7), 10-2 (+3) and 8-4 (-6).  I expect another positive return this year and a winning record.

Temple

(-4,0,+3,-3,-14,+5,+2,-8) Grand Total: -19

In a college football rarity of sorts, the recently terminated Bobby Wallace owns all eight years of returns for this D-I lightweight.  None of these returns are terribly good or bad outside of 2002's -14 (a 4-8 season).  Thing went downhill these last three seasons after three straight seasons of 4-7/4-7/4-8.  The owls finished 1-11, 2-9 and 0-11 despite two positive turnover returns.  The available talent meant that although they could control their turnovers it was just one was of plugging thousands of holes in Temple's symbolic dam.

Alright, that's it, this series is over except for what is hopefully a brief summary entry in the coming days.

***
Previous:

• Turnover Analysis: Big East
• Turnover Analysis: Pac-10
• Turnover Analysis: Big Ten
• Turnover Analysis: Big 12
• Turnover Analysis: SEC
• Turnover Analysis: ACC
• Turnover Data
  

Another sign that the season is right around the corner: conference media days.

The Mountain West held theirs recently.  Thanks to the early slot, eager-beaver reporters Dennis Dodd and ($) Bruce Feldman were there.  I'm sure their attendance had nothing to do with getting to hang out in upscale Coronado, California.  Nothing at all.

The Big East also had theirs recently, to which ($) Rivals.com had ample coverage.  Their event was held in Newport, Rhode Island of all places.

Later this month the SEC will hold its media festival in Birmingham, Alabama.  The entire college football world will likely be there.

This should be fun...

Origin: Stewart Mandel (bread + crumbs)

This list is not comprehensive but we have to start somewhere so here goes.

If college football had a commissioner, and I were in fact that person (head for the hills!), here are various policies I'd chase/enact:

---Comprehensive Schedule Reform: First legislation item signed would be that D-IA teams may only play other D-IA teams.  The day of the cupcake is over.  I would also strongly encourage every BCS conference team to play other BCS foes or quality non-BCS teams in out-of-conference play.  Games between powerhouse schools (USC/Notre Dame, Ohio State/Texas) would be incentivized with cash from NCAA coffers.

---Comprehensive Poll Reform: I'd work with the Associated Press to assemble a more engaged, talented group of voters for its poll.  I'd use NCAA money to send necessary information to all voters and pollsters such as full DVDs of all available games, or at least significant portions of the games, plus copious statistical information, quotes and stories of all games played each week.  Pollsters would be given several days to digest the material and not be allowed to send their ballots until Wednesday morning at the earliest.  Poll release would tentatively be scheduled for Thursday at noon Eastern time.

---Clarification on Postseason Play: No playoffs.  Ever.  The Rose Bowl would entertain only the Pac-10 and Big Ten champions.  If that were to disrupt a BCS championship game, tough.  Also there would be a reduction of bowl games.  There are simply too many bowl games right now and I'd work to phase out a few a year until the number settled at around 15-20 games.

---Football Saturday: I saw this somewhere else and I like the idea; like the NFL, college football games would start at similar times.  For example, all morning games would begin at say, 11 a.m. Eastern, and then the next round of games wouldn't kick off until 3 p.m., followed by more games at 7 p.m. and then a late flurry of 11 p.m. games.  One could channel-click at home with ease knowing each game watched would be at a similar junction as all other televised games.

---Preseason: I would allow every team one local exhibition scrimmage (minimal contact) against a nearby foe that wouldn't count on the schedule.  No fans or media would be allowed, but it would help teams smooth out a few rough patches before their first official game.  I would also bring back the various preseason classic games, which would count on the schedule.  It would be a great opportunity to schedule quality OOC games on opening weekend and help promote the sport.

---Eligibility: Players will have five years of eligibility, period.  There will be no redshirts, but players can apply for a 6th year of eligibility if faced with unusual injury, personal or family circumstances.  Transfers would no longer lose eligibility but must continue to sit one year before being allowed to play in games.

---NCAA Reform: The rule book would be burned.  A committee would be formed to greatly simplify the NCAA's mission to a few basic principles (think the U.S. Constitution---brilliant and concise, with delegation).  The majority of rules should be created to maintain 1)academic integrity and 2)fairness throughout the game.  Nearly everything else would be superfluous.  The NCAA would make many more rulings on the issues that come before it, making its mistakes but also setting precedents that will help clarify what is right and what is wrong.  Most people understand how our courts make their decisions and can reasonably anticipate how a judge or jury will react to a case.  In college football, it's almost the exact opposite.  The NCAA is simply too inconsistent and dark and distant.  Time to bring it into the light and create consistency in its rulings.

---Other Concerns: I would encourage a reduction in the number of D-IA teams.  We're at either 117 or 119 teams right now, which is ridiculous.  Ideally D-IA football should have anywhere from 80-100 teams.  Dropping a few D-IA teams would strengthen the quality of lower division football, making it more watchable and popular while also scraping away a handful of persistent losers from the D-IA ranks.  I would encourage the various conferences to find a way to reduce their numbers into something more like 10 teams.  Thus, round-robin play could be institutionalized and we wouldn't have to fret about certain teams playing conference title games and others not doing so.  Finally, I'd make it so that teams participating in 6-3 type games would both be credited with a loss.  That's not fun for the players, and it's not fun for the fans.

This is part six of seven in a series of entries analyzing eight years of turnover margin data at BCS conference schools.

Cincinnati

(-17,+2,+12,+4,+1,0,-5,-7) Grand Total: -10

Can you believe Rick Minter coached this program nearly a decade?  His reign lasted from 1994 to 2003 (with our turnover data starting in 1998).  That 1998 squad finished just 2-9.  Thing is, the Bearcats won eight games the season prior.  The last time the Bearcats won more than eight games, the great Sid Gillman was the coach (1949 to 1954---he went 7-4, 8-4, 10-1, 8-1, 9-1 and 8-2---yes, scheme matters).

History aside, there's five seasons of neutral or positive turnover margin after the -17 debacle with Cincinnati going 3-8 (+2), 7-5 (+12), 7-5 (+4), 7-7 (+1) and 5-7 (0).  Mark Dantonio was then hired and has yet to post a positive return on turnover margin.  He's gone 7-5 and 4-7 in his two years.  I anticipate a positive turnover margin this time around.

Connecticut

(+10,-11,-7,-5,+12,0,-5,+4) Grand Total: -2

The Huskies joined the D-IA ranks during the 2000 season, but our data goes back to 1998.  That year also marked the program's highest victory total ever, a 10-3 effort in Skip Holtz's final season.  The job has been Randy Edsall's since.  Connecticut dropped to 4-7 (-11) in 1999 and won just three games in its inaugural D-IA try (3-8, -7).  Thing got worse before they got better with a 2-9 effort in 2001 (-5).

The big change happened in 2002, with the Huskies going 6-6 (+12) and never looking back.  The last three years look like this: 9-3 (0), 8-4 (-5), 5-6 (+4).

Louisville

(-3,-5,+11,+10,-15,+3,+11,+6) Grand Total: +18

The combustible John L. Smith is responsible for the first five seasons represented here, the high bail flight threat Bobby Petrino the last three.  Smith inherited a 1-10 team from Ron Cooper, and swiftly turned the Cardinals around with a pair of 7-5 seasons despite negative turnover returns.  Thanks to some quality recruiting and two superb turnover margins, the Cardinals made "The Leap" and went 9-3 and 11-2 (+11 and +10 in turnovers) before a drop to 7-6 behind the disastrous -15 turnover margin.  Since then, Petrino's had this team flirting with the top 10-15 rankings, going 9-4, 11-1 and 9-3, all with positive turnover numbers.  Some credit is due to some great quarterbacks (Stefan LeFlor, Brian Brohm) who have not had interception issues.

Pittsburgh

(-9,0,-11,-5,+10,+5,+13,-4) Grand Total: -1

The quietly successful Walt Harris owns the first eight returns, Dave Wannstedt the last one.  Harris has a spotty turnover record, but appears to have figured things out his final three seasons (+10,+5,+13).  All three also mark Pitt's highest win totals during his eight-season tenure (9-4,8-5,8-4).  He was able to post a pair of 7-5 seasons despite the daunting -11 and -5 turnover returns in 2000 and 2001.  Wannstedt went 5-6 last year and is considered a defensive-minded guy.  I hunch he won't stay in the negative turnover column for too long.  Having a competent senior quarterback like Tyler Palko never hurts, either.

Rutgers

(-12,-5,-7,-22,-13,-6,-7,-3) Grand Total: -75

Heh.  This is just tough to look at.  Not a single positive turnover return in eight seasons of data.  Poor Rutgers fans.  At least the program's finally improving.  Terry Shea owns the first three returns (5-6, 1-10 and 3-8 seasons), Greg Schiano the next five.  To its credit, Rutgers has put faith in Schiano (hired from Miami, Fl) and its investment may finally be paying off after a 7-5 season.  Schiano started out pretty rough, losing a combined net of 35 turnovers his first two years (2-9 and 1-11 efforts).  But the program's shown life since, increasing its wins (5-7, 4-7 and 7-5) and dropping its turnover debtload (-6,-7,-3).  This year they're overdue for a positive turnover margin.

Oh, also a quick side story.  I was visiting family in Miami for Christmas one year (2001, I believe), and upon leaving the airport there was a huge billboard along the freeway proclaiming Christmas greetings from the Rutgers football program.  It was clearly an effort by Schiano (who had coached at Miami and knew the area) to divert the eyes of overlooked Florida football recruits to lovely New Jersey.  I doubt it did him any good, but clearly the guy is willing to give it the old college try.  Amazingly enough, his persistence has paid off.

South Florida

(-1,-3,-2,+2,+21,-1-10,+5) Grand Total: +11

The Bulls did not join the D-IA ranks until the 2001 season and have only been playing football since 1997.  Jim Leavitt's been the program's coach all nine years (eight within this data set).  His best win total is unsurprisingly linked to the great +21 turnover margin posted in 2002 (9-2 record).  Since then, they've gone 7-4 (-1), 4-7 (-10) and 6-6 (+5).  Turnovers go down, record goes down, turnovers go up, record goes up---it's a pretty consistent pattern at most schools CFR's analyzed.

Syracuse

(+11,-7,-6,+18,+2,+7,+2,-4) Grand Total: +23

Paul Pasqualoni was the longtime captain of this ship, coaching from 1991 to 2004.  Greg Robinson was the coach last year.  Things were running smoothly for this program until 2002 when the wheels fell off.  The Orange went 8-4 in 1998 (+11), then 7-5 (-7) and 6-5 (-6) before a great rebound to 10-3 (+18!), then fell to 4-8 (+2), 6-6 (+7) and 6-6 (+2).  I find it unusual that they could maintain positive turnover numbers with a middling record but be above .500 with negative numbers.  Confusing, but hey, that's football sometimes.  Robinson owns a 1-10 mark to start his Syracuse career, but at least the -4 isn't a disastrous start.

West Virginia

(+6,-5,+9,-8,+19,+16,+3,+14) Grand Total: +54

The esteemed Don Nehlen owns the first three totals (coaching the Mountaineers from 1980 to 2000!).  They went 8-4 (+6), 4-7 (-5) and 7-5 (+9) his final three seasons.  That legacy was then inherited by a man who clearly understands the power of turnovers---Rich Rodriguez.  After an understandably bumpy transition (3-8 season in 2001, -8 margin), things have gone skyward for West Virginia.  Rodriguez improved to 9-4 (+19 and a 27 turnover swing in just two seasons), 8-5 (+16) and 8-4 (+3) before last year's remarkable 11-1 finish (+14).  I anticipate continued turnover success, as Rodriguez is in the mold of guys like Phil Fullmer, Barry Alvarez and Pete Carroll who annually produce high positive turnover margins.

***
Previous:

• Turnover Analysis: Pac-10
• Turnover Analysis: Big Ten
• Turnover Analysis: Big 12
• Turnover Analysis: SEC
• Turnover Analysis: ACC
• Turnover Data
  

Time to take a little stroll around the CFB blog community, comment on a few things.

This will have an ACC flavor as I look through the various ACC blogs listed on here. 

---HP pens a beautiful paean to Florida State coach Bobby Bowden.

[A]s he winds down his career, it should always be remembered how he got there. He turned a moribund program into a national power by going balls-out against the best programs in the country on their home turf. He didn't pad his record by scheduling the Little Sisters of the Poor. He went against the elites and, more often than not, ended up shocking the college football world.

He truly is one of the all-time greats.

Oh, and he also saves entry No. 1000 in his career to send a link my way.  Good guy, that HP.

---MGoBlog continues its series of great Big Ten previews with... Illinois.  It's a fine preview, though.  Really.  There's also Penn State or Michigan State if you're interested in teams with a pulse.

---Over at the unhinged BruinsNation, there's an interview with Los Angeles Daily News beat writer Brian Dohn.

Dohn's clearly a realistic guy and has an interesting point of view---he believes coaches need at least six years before they can be fairly judged on their performance, for example.  But I quibble with his sentiment about blogs:

To be honest, I don’t like the concept of blogs as it relates to covering a beat. My feeling is, if it’s not important enough to put in the paper, it’s not important enough to include in a blog. The way I see it, blogs are another way of writing rumors. I don’t deal in rumors. I deal in fact. I don’t print rumors. And I also don’t think it is anyone’s business whom is dating whom, or which player hosted the best weekend party.

Most members of the traditional media get a bit robotic at times, with canned, time-tested responses to new media challenges.  Dohn sadly falls into that category.  He is correct to strive for fact in his reporting, however his "example" of what the blogs are talking about is outrageous.  Which "player hosted the best weekend party"?  I have yet to see that type of information on a single college football blog.

The problem with beats is that a lot of important information doesn't make the papers.  The writers have deadlines and space limitations that often conflict with providing a more detailed entry.  Both Dohn and his colleague at the Daily News Scott Wolf know far more relevant information about their respective programs than ever hits the presses.  Don't be fooled.

I think he's also taking a not-so-veiled dig at the Hollywood image of USC and gossipy colleague Scott Wolf.  That's funny, but it's also telling that the blog-crazy Daily News has a blog carved out for USC, but has yet to assemble its UCLA blog, allowing its beat guy to blog about his marathon training experience.  Apparently that's more interesting and relevant to the Daily News' readers than UCLA football and basketball tidbits.

What does that say about UCLA's fan base, though?

---Peter at Burnt Orange Nation puts on his goody two shoes to try and single out the recruiting practices at rival Texas A&M.  Although most teams agree to the Gentleman's Agreement, not all bloggers do.  Just a warning---that's not a fight you want to engage in.  The Aggies are a mess, but they have plenty of dirt on Texas.  For the most part they keep their lips sealed, Honor Code and all.  But that can change.

Also, Peter takes a stab at preseason rankings and asks:

Should we be thinking about strength of schedule yet? Or just ranking the ten 'best' teams (as we see it)?

As I've stressed on here many times before, rankings should be about who is best.  Then whoever's next best, put them next.  And so on.  Theoretically Louisville could go 12-0 and the next closest record could be a 10-2 Ohio State team, but if Louisville is not, in fact, the best team---they shouldn't be ranked No. 1, period.

Strength of schedule is discussed on here not as a means to determine who "deserves" to be ranked higher between teams with similar records, but to bring to light that not everyone gets to their records the same way.  Additionally, it's far easier to judge a team that's faced a handful of good opponents (win or lose) than one that hasn't.  The better the information available to make judgments on teams, the more accurate rankings will become as fans and voters are aware of each team's aptitude when facing a multitude of challenging opponents.

---Blue-Gray Sky is enjoying Notre Dame's media saturation period.  Of course they're now going to have to reverse course and begin defending the Irish media image after criticizing USC for similar saturation the last few years.  Hopefully they'll catch the irony and rather just enjoy the process of being in the limelight.

ACC Blogs 

---Marcus at Atlantic Coast Chronicles is writing the early obituary for Virginia coach Al Groh.  I think the writing was on the wall when several players left the program and immediately vented to the Virginia papers about the Groh regime.  That's the sign of a poisonous atmosphere within the program.

---Fun.  Here's a link to a downloadable (Microsoft Excel) ACC sports helmet schedule.

---The Sun-Sentinel's Omar Kelly says its about PT and the NFL with Willie Williams.  He simply won't get it at Miami as he is buried behind some very good linebackers.

---StateFans Nation really doesn't like former North Carolina coach Carl Torbush.  There's a nice photoshop if you click the link.

---Section Six has been alllll over the NCAA "Diploma Mill" story.  Nice work.

There are many good college football tidbits in this Orlando Sentinel article by columnist Mike Huguenin (H/T: The Wiz) that was the baseline for my "no mas" to eight game home slates entry below.

More schedule tidbits:

Eight of the 65 BCS-league schools aren't playing any BCS-league opponents or Notre Dame in nonconference play: Boston College, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Wisconsin.

Five BCS-league schools are playing three nonconference games against BCS-league foes or Notre Dame: Louisville, North Carolina, Syracuse, USC and Wake Forest.

If home games help you get off to a fast start, these teams are loving it, as each opens the season with four consecutive home games: Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Purdue and Tennessee. There's also Texas A&M, with four of its first five in College Station and the fifth a "road" game against Army in San Antonio.

And a great move by the SEC scheduling wonks:

Overlooked by a lot of folks (we're among them, we admit) is that the Southeastern Conference voted in May to require all its football teams to play on Thanksgiving weekend starting in 2007. The games will be the league's "traditional" rivalries: Alabama-Auburn, Florida-Florida State, Georgia-Georgia Tech, Clemson-South Carolina, Ole Miss-Mississippi State, Kentucky-Tennessee and Arkansas-LSU. (We'll avoid pointing out that Arkansas-LSU isn't a rivalry; it's just the traditional season-ending foe for Arkansas since it joined the SEC in 1992.)

That covers 11 of the league's 12 teams. Vanderbilt's final game each season will be against a nonconference foe.

Finally, at least six schools are certain to be embarrassed by an upcoming ESPN reality program about incoming freshman players. We now have three named participants---Florida receiver Jarred Fayson, Colorado quarterback Cody Hawkins (coach Dan Hawkins' son) and UCLA receiver Terrence Austin.

Florida freshman wide receiver Jarred Fayson will be one of six players spotlighted in a new show on ESPNU, ESPNU Summer House. It's a reality show in which six touted incoming freshman live together in a house in the Lincoln Park district of Chicago.

There will be eight 30-minute episodes; the show debuts on July 25 and will air at 7:30 p.m. on the seven following Tuesdays on ESPNU.

Among the other players are Colorado quarterback Cody Hawkins and UCLA wide receiver Terrence Austin. ESPN college football analyst Chris Spielman will serve as the "house dad."

Among the high jinks that will ensue: The players are scheduled to perform a dance routine during halftime of a WNBA game.

Part five of seven in this series examining eight years of turnover margin data: Pac-10

Arizona

(+11,-12,+10,-7,-7,-5,+3,-9) Grand Total: -16

Dick Tomey was still coaching the Wildcats during the first three years of this analysis (although his tenure seems so very long ago), starting with the 12-1 season in 1998.  The Wildcats then slide to 6-6 and 5-6.  It's interesting that they had such a wild swing of turnovers from year to year like that (+11,-12,+10).  The poisonous John Mackovic era would rule the next three years, with repeated negative turnover margins and a free-falling record from 5-6 to 4-8 to 2-10.  Mike Stoops has coached the last two seasons, both 3-8 efforts.  With a nearly double-digit negative turnover margin last year, it's likely the Wildcats will improve greatly in that department this year.

Arizona State

(-2,-9,+8,-8,+4,-4,+5,+7) Grand Total: +1

Another name from the past, Bruce Snyder coached the Sun Devils for the first three returns, going 5-6, 6-6 and 6-6.  Dirk Koetter has been the head man since, improving from 4-7 (-8) to 8-6 (+4), then dropping to 5-7 (-4) and then improving the last two years to 9-3 (+5) and 7-5 (+7).  Turnover margin is a nice prediction of team success or failure in the Koetter era.

California

(+6,-5,-4,-18,+18,+3,+2,-6) Grand Total: -4

The disastrous Tom Holmoe was head coach for the first four totals, as the Bears declined in victories each season (5-6 record, then 4-7,3-8 and 1-10).  Jeff Tedford was hired, and Cal started its amazing turnaround.  A 36-turnover swing from one season to the next helped Cal roar back from the 1-10 doldrums to a 7-5 effort in 2002.  They've since gone 8-6, 10-2 and 8-4.  Much of last year's negative total can be credited to the interception-prone Joe Ayoob at quarterback.  Things should improve this year with a more veteran defense to support what should be a better quarterbacking effort.

Oregon

(-10,+11,+6,+16,+5,-5,-2,+13) Grand Total: +34

This is all the work of coach Mike Bellotti.  Oregon went 8-4 in 1998 (-10) before a fine three-year run that saw them go 9-3, 10-2 and 11-1 behind the efforts of quarterback Joey Harrington.  Their turnover efforts were fantastic in those years, but fell precipitously until last year.  The team record shows a similar pattern, with the Ducks falling from 11-1 to 7-6, 8-5 and 5-6 before last year's resurgence at 10-2 (+13).  Turnovers help tell a story here, and they're something to keep an eye on this season with Oregon trying to maintain momentum from last year's 10-win effort.

Oregon State

(-3,+7,+18,-7,+8,-8,+3,-14) Grand Total: +4

Mike Riley owns the first total (coinciding with a 5-6 record), followed by Dennis Erickson the next four years.  Erickson would go 7-5 and 11-1 before falling to 5-6 and then improving to 8-5.  The turnovers paint an accurate picture for his fate, mirroring the rise and fall of the record.  Riley retured to the team in 2003, maintaining an 8-5 mark before sliding to 7-5 and 5-6.  Interception nightmare quarterback Matt Moore contributed heavily to last year's -14 turnover margin.

Stanford

(+2,+10,0,+3,-5,+1,+8,+4) Grand Total: +23

Tyrone Willingham's final four years at the farm are represented here.  His teams went 3-8 (+2), 8-4 (+10), 5-6 (0) and 9-3 (+3) before being hired at Notre Dame.  Buddy Teevens was then hired and never found much success, going 2-9 (-5), 4-7 (+1) and 4-7 (+8).  Walt Harris coached last year's Cardinal team, finishing 5-6 and +4.  Counting his stay at Pitt, Harris has now coached four consecutive seasons with positive turnover margin.

UCLA

(+17,-3,+7,-3,+2,-1,-6,+6) Grand Total: +19

Ahhh, UCLA.  Bob Toledo was the coach responsible for the first five totals.  Not surprisingly, the +17 was part of the 1998 season that saw the Bruins go 10-2 in a brief island of success where the Bruins won 20 consecutive games and had another 10-2 record the season previous.  Those two successes were sandwiched inbetween 5-6 and 4-7 seasons.  UCLA's not used to being able to handle success, I guess.

Toledo would ride out his tenure going 4-7 (-3), 6-6 (+7), 7-4 (-3) and 8-5 (+2).  Karl Dorrell was then hired, coaching two nondescript efforts at 6-7 and 6-6 before last season's resurgence at 10-2.  Despite starting quarterback Drew Olson throwing just four six interceptions, UCLA managed just +6 in turnover margin last year.  Hopefully new defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker can help improve that situation.

USC

(+11,+14,-19,+16,+18,+20,+19,+21) Grand Total: +100

Simply amazing.  The lone blemish was the forgettable Paul Hackett's final season (2000, -19) where the Trojans finished 5-7 and at the bottom of the Pac-10.  But even the lowly Hackett managed to string together seasons of +11 and +14 before his termination in 2000.

In five years, Pete Carroll has yet to have anything less than a double-digit positive return on turnover margin.  I've gone through eight years of turnover margin data at every BCS school and there's simply nothing like what Carroll has done with this statistic.  From day one he was able to get the team to change its turnover fate, and although the record lagged his first season, it caught up in a big way as USC has been the face of college football since 2002 (11-2, 12-1,13-0,12-1).

Washington

(-8,-2,-3,-2,+1,-4,-19,-3) Grand Total: -40

This is disappointing to look at.  The once-proud Huskies have had four coaches during this time frame, starting with Jim Lambright who would finish 6-6 before they hired Rick Neuheisel from Colorado.  "Skippy" would greatly improve the team's fate, helping them to 7-5, 11-1,8-4 and 7-6 records before his termination, but the turnovers never mirrored the team's success.  The poison around his tenure and termination have been disastrous for the program, with its record falling to 6-6 and then 1-10 under Keith Gilbertson and then last year at 2-9 with Tyrone Willingham.

Washington State

(-17,-4,-1,+12,-4,+8,-1,-5) Grand Total: -12

Mike Price was the Cougars' coach for the first five totals here.  Washington State has been a feast or famine program for many years now, which helps explain its diverse record.  The Cougars were a 10-2 Rose Bowl team in 1997, but fell on hard times in 1998, dropping to 3-8 with a -17 turnover margin.  That was followed by 3-9 and 4-7 records before Jason Gesser emerged, leading them to 10-2 and 10-3 marks (+12,-4).  Price left to screw up his opportunity with Alabama, but Doba was able to keep the engine running for another full season, coaching the Cougars to a 10-3 record (+8).  Since then, it's been more famine than feast with the turnover numbers dropping along with the record (5-6 and 4-7 the last two years).

***
Previous:

• Turnover Analysis: Big Ten
• Turnover Analysis: Big 12
  
• Turnover Analysis: SEC
• Turnover Analysis: ACC
• Turnover Data
  

Schools playing eight home games this season (2006):

Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Memphis, Hawai'i

Why am I not surprised three of the eight are from the SEC?

Honestly, it's not even an "SEC" issue with me anymore.  It's simply a problem, period.  One that needs to be fixed, and one way to come to a solution is to 1)highlight the problem (this post, for example) and 2)bring shame to the schools that are looking for shortcuts.

Does anyone think Georgia suddenly gets off its collective duff and schedules a roadie to a place like Colorado and Arizona State without fans making noise and pointing out that the program's last regular season game outside the historic south was well over 40 years ago?  I don't.  Somewhere along the line a concerned fan or administrator was able to pass along word to Georgia's athletic director Damon Evans that simple fact (or something similar) and shocked/embarrassed him into action.

I'm particularly surprised at Auburn, given that they took so much heat for their weak scheduling in 2004 when they could have competed in a BCS title game if not for the soft OOC slate.  They've beefed up their OOC schedule this year (Washington State, Tulane, Buffalo) if ever so slightly, but have shoehorned eight home games into the same schedule.  In fact, they play nine of twelve games in the state of Alabama, and 11 of 12 within the state or bordering states.  The Tigers' only extensive travel is to Columbia, South Carolina to play the South Carolina Gamecocks in late September.

Different tactic, same problem: running away from competition and potential losses.

Fix.The.Problem.

Then I'll shut up.

Really.

*** 
Update:

The great LD adds a few comments and does some fact-checking (sayonara, Memphis and Hawai'i, although both still have a disproportionate 7 home games) in the comments below.  He says we need to look at a school's scheduling patterns to see if the eight game slates are a quirk or part of a more troubling pattern.

I buy most of what he says, and am willing to give some grace to Alabama and perhaps LSU.  Auburn, on the other hand, you guys simply find ways to look worse and worse.  You're my preseason No. 3, act like it! 

Alright, it's about time for me to complete this series (Origin-Big 12-SEC-ACC).

Part four of seven today: The Big Ten.

Illinois

(-11,+13,-2,+4,-8,-18,-6,-11) Grand Total: -39

The first seven totals represent year two through eight of the Ron Turner era.  Turner inherited a 2-9 team from Lou Tepper, and then "led" his first squad to a winless season.  He improved to 3-8 the next year (-11) and then pushed the next team to a winning 8-4 record (+13).  His incredible 10-2 effort in 2001 had the benefit of a fairly modest +4 turnover margin but then things went downhill.  Record of 5-7 (-8), 1-11 (horrible -18) and 3-8 (-6) led the Illini to can him and hire one Ron Zook.  Zook didn't fare much better last year, engineering just two wins and a sad -11 turnover margin.

Indiana

(+3,+1,-16,+7,-12,+3,+4,-8) Grand Total: -18

These totals almost date back to the Bill Mallory era (1984-1996).  The three Hoosier coaches during this time period are Cam Cameron (first four years and his second through fifth season at Indiana), Gerry DiNardo and Terry Hoeppner.  During this time Indiana has yet to record a single winning season, topping out at 5-6 in 2001 in Cameron's final year.

Indiana's best record (5-6 in 2001) is mirrored by its best turnover margin (+7).  The DiNardo years were sad despite two positive turnover totals, and Hoeppner fared better (4-7) despite a bad -8 margin his first time out.  There is hope with Hoeppner and it's likely the Hoosiers will improve their turnover totals and perhaps their win total this year.

Iowa

(-1,-5,-3,0,+15,+4,+13,-1) Grand Total: +22

The great Kirk Ferentz is responsible for all but one of these totals, with Hayden Fry the owner of the first, part of a 3-8 effort to end his fine coaching career.  Ferentz had difficulties his first two years, going 1-10 and 3-9, but pushed the Hawkeyes to 7-5 despite three straight years of negative or neutral turnover returns.  His next three seasons were even more brilliant, going 11-2, 10-3 and 10-2, mirrored by +15, +4 and +13 turnover returns.

Last year the Hawkeyes returned to orbit a bit, finishing at 7-5 with a -1 turnover margin.  What's interesting is that Ferentz was able to get the Hawkeyes into a 7-5 type season before their big run without the power of positive turnover margin.  He then was able to make that giant leap into elite status by harnessing the power of high positive turnover margin.  If the Hawkeyes are to contend again this year, keep a lookout for their turnover totals, they may be a good indicator of whether they're on pace for a good 7-5 season or a great 10-2 season.

Michigan

(-3,+10,+13,-6,+9,-2,+6,+5) Grand Total: +32

Lloyd Carr is responsible for all eight years detailed here.  The first total is from 1998, a post-championship year that probably explains the -3 and a 10-3 record (down from the previous 12-0).  Michigan owns four 10-win seasons in these eight years, going 10-3 in 1998 (-3), 10-2 in 1999 (+10), 10-3 in 2002 (+9) and 10-3 in 2003 (-2).  Five positive totals in eight years is a fine effort and Michigan is a fine---if maddening---team.  Michigan hasn't embarrassed itself with turnovers in any given season and great turnover margins are often punctuated with 10-win seasons.  Good stuff.

Michigan State

(+3,-3,-8,-1,-7,+11,-10,-1) Grand Total: -16

First total (+3): Nick Saban.  Next total (-3): Nick Saban and Bobby Williams.  The difference: one season the Spartans went 6-6, the next one 10-2.  Sometimes turnovers don't tell the story.  Bobby Williams coached the next three years (-8,-1,-7) going 5-6, 7-5 and 4-8.  John L. Smith has been the Spartans' cranky commander since, rallying around a +11 effort to go 8-5 before the chaos (-10,-1) of the last two seasons at 5-7 and 5-6 have him on thin ice in East Lansing.

Minnesota

(-1,-2,+2,+2,0,-1,+7,-1) Grand Total: +6

Look above once more.  That's hilarious.  Is Glen Mason the kind of guy who dangles his feet in the pool, never to dive in or what?  Mason has done a great job with this program, giving them five winning seasons in his nine years in charge.  I'd say more, but turnover margin isn't telling the story here.  The outlier at +7 followed 2003's 10-3 effort, Minnesota's first 10-win effort since 1905!  Of course, that +7 meant a drop from a 10-3 record to 7-5.  Go figure.

Northwestern

(-3,-6,+13,-1,-6,-2,+4,+9) Grand Total: +8

Gary Barnett left the Wildcats in 1998 (-3, 3-9 record), and what follows is the recently departed Randy Walker era.  Northwestern went from 3-8 (-6) to 8-4 (+13) in his first two years on the job.  Walker's two best efforts were aided by his two best turnover margins: the aforementioned 8-4 season in 2000 and last year's 7-5 at +9.

Ohio State

(+5,-8,+8,+9,+13,+1,-1,-9) Grand Total: +18

John Cooper coached the Buckeyes for the first three years of the available data, going 11-1, 6-6 and 8-4.  Jim Tressel has been the Buckeyes' coach for five years now, winning a national championship in 2002 (+13).  He has lost a bit of the early turnover momentum but the Buckeyes are likely poised for a turnover margin rebound after three consecutive pedestrian years (turnover margin, not record).

Penn State

(+3,+2,+4,-11,+14,-6,-3,+3) Grand Total: +6

Obviously Joe Paterno is responsible for the eight-year window of data we have here.  The most notable information here is the swing from -11 in 2001 to +14 in 2002.  In those two years the Nittany Lions went from 5-6 to 9-4, before falling to 3-9 and 4-7 the following years (-6,-3) before last year's revival at 11-1 (+3).

Purdue

(+5,+1,0,+11,-10,+12,-3,+3) Grand Total: +19

Joe Tiller has been the coach here all eight years (and one season previous).  The turnover data here is interesting.  In 1998 Purdue went 9-4 with a +5 turnover margin.  The next year they went 7-5 at +1.  The next year they went 8-4 at 0.