Earlier this week I did my best to discern notable "artists and mechanics" from the 2007 crop of college football players and coaches.  The concept was developed by Sun Sports TV's Whit Watson.  It's his baby, so I invited him to respond.

He has now done so, and you can find it at his blog: Artists and Mechanics 2007 (Chapter 1)

Notable excerpts:

While CFR likes to take the theory national, pondering the Artist vs. Mechanic tendencies of, for example, Pete Carroll and Jimmy Clausen, I know where my bread is buttered. Thankfully, so does Brian, and that's why he put up a list of Florida football personalities for me to break down. There was also the tantalizing offer to assign some of my fellow Sun Sports personalities into the "Artist" or "Mechanic" camp.

Create fresh content for two blogs at once, and possibly rip Mike Bianchi in the process? Is today Christmas?

Heh.  We're always happy to deliver presents early.

Randy Shannon: Mechanic. I've met the coach a few times, including our interview for "In My Own Words" this summer, and he strikes me as a by-the-book dude. While he's an exceptional recruiter -- a skill that screams Artist -- his attention to discipline, doing the little things correctly, and hammering the details betrays him as a Mechanic. If you spend some time learning about his background, how he lost several family members under tragic circumstances and escaped the violent streets of Liberty City in Miami as the first member of his family to graduate from college, his Mechanic tendencies start to make sense. When faced with life-or-death choices, as Shannon surely was in his youth, adhering to a self-imposed set of rules can be a powerful tool for survival. Randy Shannon's meticulous nature got him out of the projects and into the head coaching job at Miami. He's the Mechanic's Mechanic. Is that what the Hurricane football program needed? The administration at UM is banking on it.

There certainly has never been a Miami coach quite like Shannon.

Jimbo Fisher, Rick Trickett: I group these two new assistants at Florida State together because, as the post at CFR asks, "are there any Artists among FSU's new coaches?" I would say "yes" to both, simply because the perception of these two men in particular is that of "guru," and gurus are wheelhouse Artists. Both Fisher and Trickett may indeed be inventive and/or process-oriented in the manner of a Mechanic, but that's not why they were hired -- they were hired to make a splashy statement to Florida State fans, boosters, and players that the Seminoles are serious. Their reputation precedes them. They bring cache' and credibility to the FSU football program. They're rock stars in the world of assistant coaches. Thus, Artists.

This was very surprising.  They strike me as the farthest thing from artists (Fisher rarely gets more descriptive about his offense other than to say it's "multiple"), but the exact reason they're in Tallahassee logically is rooted in a demand for artistic freedom lacking under the previous coaches.

Tim Tebow: I thought long and hard about this one, and I'm going with Artist. Anybody who can execute the jump-pass in a critical SEC matchup against LSU cannot be anything else. One of Urban Meyer's biggest concerns about Tebow this year will be keeping him healthy -- not because of any weakness in Florida's offensive line, which happens to be one of the best and most experienced in the Southeastern Conference -- but because Tebow is a linebacker in a quarterback's body. The young man simply likes to hit people. He's all about the experience, which is part of the definition of Artist. He's just a football player, the highest compliment a head coach can bestow. It's interesting that the Gator coaching staff has spent a lot of time working with Tebow on his throwing motion this summer. They're trying to work a little Mechanic into him. But ask yourself this -- if you had to compare the kid to any quarterback in the NFL right now, who's the first guy that comes to mind?

Right. Brett Favre. Not based on skill, yet, but based on sheer love of the game. Tebow and Favre both play football as if they were on an empty sandlot, two-hand touch, gotta be home before it gets dark and Mom yells at us. Artists.

Yeh Tebow was more vexing than one would assume at first glance.  Everyone has both an artists and a mechanic within them, but Tebow's chameleon act strikes me as something rare and perhaps transcendant.  It would explain why he's already a God in Gainesville.

Myron Rolle: Another tough one. His "renaissance man" reputation is well-earned. Rolle is an excellent student, having played his high school football at the Hun School in New Jersey (average SAT score: 1200), where he earned just about every academic honor you can imagine. In fact, he enters the 2007 football season as an athletic sophomore but very nearly an academic senior -- he's three hours shy of completing enough classes to finish his junior year. FSU's bio page calls Rolle "one of the most academically advanced players in college football history," and it's hard to argue otherwise.

But despite all that, despite his dream of becoming a Rhodes scholar and a doctor, despite the fact that he played the lead role in "Fiddler On The Roof" as a high school senior, I'm going with Mechanic, and here's why: do you have any idea how hard it is to maintain that level of academic excellence and play as a starter on a Division I football team? His time management skills have got to be legendary. Spring football, summer workouts, preseason two-a-days, travel to and from games during the season -- and he's still an honor roll guy? That's impressive. It requires exacting attention to detail, self-discipline, and diligence. His days must be scheduled to the minute. Mechanic.

I'm sold.

And today's wild card:

Mike Bianchi: Artist. As I have written here before, I love the fact that Mikey always sides with the righteous underdog in his columns. His favorite quote: "The job of the sports columnist is to watch the battle from the mountaintop and then ride down and bayonet the wounded." Tilting at windmills is a favorite hobby of Artists.

And me? As much as I'd love to think of myself as an Artist, I have to face reality: Mechanic. I'm all about the research. For me, live television is easy once you know you've done the homework. I'm very much a "measure twice, cut once" kind of guy. One of my personal favorite quotes came from the late Ronald Reagan, who liked to say, "trust, but verify." And by the way, it took me three days to write this entry.

Hilarious quote from Bianchi.  I gotta memorize that one.

My sincere thanks once again to Whit Watson for devoting some of his limited time to this exchange.  I love sending praise his way but Whit truly deserves it.  The guy is one of the more capable television personalities and a legitimate thinker who is also gracious with his time.  Be sure and check out his regularly updated blog and also watch him on Sun Sports if you're living in or near Florida.

***
Previously at College Football Resource:

Artists and Mechanics
Artists and Mechanics 2006
Whit's Response: Artists and Mechanics
Artists and Mechanics 2007

I did this last year and with another year of college football it's worth another try as we head into the final week before the 2007-2008 college football season.

1. Artists and Mechanics 2006
2. Whit's Response: Artists and Mechanics 2006

See above for a full background of what follows.  In brief: Sun Sports TV's Whit Watson came up with an intuitive but rarely discussed concept called Artists and Mechanics.  He wrote about it, fleshed it out a bit and that's kind of how this internet thing works.

In short, I believe that the world is split into two groups: Artists and Mechanics. Some might call it right-brain and left-brain, but I think Artists and Mechanics is much more lyrical and descriptive. Artists tend to be big-picture types, unconcerned with mundane details. They're strong on the "why," but weaker on the "how." Process is irrelevant; experience is everything...

...A Mechanic, on the other hand, thrives on process. The "how" supercedes the "why." Details bring joy. Learning how to accomplish a new task is a thrill...

...Artists need Mechanics, and vice versa. One cannot survive without the other.

I saw it, loved it, responded and he was kind enough to respond back with his takes.  I looked at college football's big picture, and he nailed down the Florida schools and dabbled with SEC/ACC notables.

Time to try it again, as it's a new year and we have new names and faces to talk about.  I'm going to write this up and pass it along to Whit Watson and if he's got the time (he's a busy man right about now), he'll send us a reply to which I'll gladly reproduce on here.  Sound good?

***
There's no better way to start out than talking about the preseason favorite USC Trojans.  Although he's lauded for his aggressiveness and risk-taking, USC coach Pete Carroll is a mechanic.  The man is still in love with the NFL (nothing if not a mechanic's league) and conservative, let the defense win it football.  Notably, he's edged even further towards the mechanic camp in recent years, transforming the vision of the USC offense from Norm Chow's artist's interpretation to a more grinding pro style.

His right hand man in the new offense is Steve Sarkisian.  Although a Chow "disciple", Sarkisian speaks a lot about execution and mastery of an increasingly complex system.  Their system is now less about daydreams and "what could be" and more about NFL 101 and "what we're going to do".

Down in the Bayou, I've got a funny feeling that LSU coach Les Miles is a bit more of an artist than he lets on.  Behind that bravado and huff-puffing is a guy who 1)wears his hat real funny and 2)hired freaking Gary Crowton to run an SEC offense.  That takes some imagination.  His mind was also flexible enough to permit both a pass-happy and run-happy offense in separate years at Oklahoma State.  Dogma is the realm of mechanics and Miles doesn't strike me as a repeatedly dogmatic person.

I talked last year about Arkansas coach Houston Nutt being an artist - that hasn't changed.  Whit Watson has alluded to how pairing artists with mechanics can create a synergistic harmony.  Well, pairing artists with artists or mechanics with mechanics may be bad medicine.  I think that may have been part of the issue last year with former offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn (artist!).  Malzahn liked his art one way (the forward pass), Nutt liked his the other way (run, run, run).  Thus: splittsville.

Malzahn's gone, but Arkansas has dusted off some old school tricks and made them modern with its Wildcat offense (now renamed WildHog).  Tell me that's not an artist at work?

New Alabama coach Nick Saban is an almost overbearing Mechanic.  Last year I said the 'Tide was too mechanical.  So what'd they do?  They went out and got another mechanic.  Here's hoping new offensive coordinator Major Applewhite is an artist to balance things out.

Now, for some players.

Leading Heisman Trophy candidate Darren McFadden strikes me as an artist.  His game isn't all that fancy, but he's creative enough to play multiple roles as returnman, tailback and quarterback at the D-I level.  He drives a funky, tricked-out car.  And he wears dresses on the side.  Artist.

Out west, quarterback John David Booty is an artist.  His game isn't all that fancy, but here's a guy who ditched his senior year of high school at age 17 to compete for a starting quarterback job at a major program.  That's vision at work.  As a high school passer, he was magnificent in a gimmick offense.  Somehow he was able to transform himself from a shotgun/gunslinger into a pure pocket passer.  It's one of the most remarkable transformations I've ever seen and something that stumped guys like Brock Berlin, Brent Rawls, Josh Booty and so many others.  Kid's got some imagination.

Another signal caller worth mentioning is Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen.  He's a big-time mechanic.  He's been groomed since birth to be a quarterback and by the end of high school had all but mastered college-level mechanics and understanding of defenses.  He's very polished (which also means he has a low ceiling) and a ready-made product.  Artists tend to be more freewheeling and prone to mistakes whereas Clausen's had that tunnel-vision of a grinding mechanic.

At Michigan, one player who really stood out last year was linebacker/defensive end Shawn Crable.  His versatility alone speaks to artistic tendencies.  He plays decent in space and can run with tight ends and backs.  But he can also stuff the run and has a real knack for getting to the quarterback.  His game is imaginative and freewheeling.  Need more?  He was born in Buckeye country and was one of those rare high high high profile Ohio ballers to give serious thought to programs around the country before settling on hated rival Michigan.  Independence?  Check.  Creativity?  Check.  Artist.

Who else would you like to discuss?  Leave a comment below and let's get the conversation started.  Some wild cards: Lee Corso, Kirk Herbstreit (broadcaster or player), Mack Brown, Colt McCoy, Arrelious Benn, Andre Woodson, Pat White, DeSean Jackson, Frank Beamer.

In the meantime, here are some possible questions for Mr. Whit Watson: You spoke last year about Urban Meyer, Bobby Bowden, Mickey Andrews, Jeff Bowden, Larry Coker, Chris Leak, George O'Leary, Jim Leavitt and Andre Hall.  With some new players and coaches emerging, how about these names: Randy Shannon, Jimbo Fisher, Rick Trickett (are there any artists among FSU's new coaches?!), Tim Tebow, Matt Grothe, Percy Harvin, Myron Rolle and Terry Bowden?

Also: How would you assess the great Tailgate Overtime show?  More artist or mechanic?  How about co-hosts Brady Ackerman and Terry Norvelle?  Or guests like Mike Bianchi or the myriad former Gators, Noles and Canes who make guest appearances?  Plus: wild cards.

My quick takes: Rolle is a tough-nosed defender, but I could see him dropping football tomorrow to follow some other pursuit.  He's a renaissance man and an artist in my book.  Shannon appears to be a big-time mechanic, same with Trickett.  Fisher strikes me as a mechanic, Grothe an artist (people keep comparing him to Joe Montana!), Harvin an artist, Tebow a great artist who is also a mechanic (keeps winning all the offseason hard-work awards).  Bowden's a bit of a renaissance man - surprisingly - went to Oxford and did law school and seemed surprised by the hours he's had to put in as a low-level assistant coach at Florida State.  Let's call him a closet artist.

Defensive End
Gaines Adams-Clemson, LaMarr Woodley-Michigan

Honorable Mention
Adam Carriker-Nebraska, Victor Abiamiri-Notre Dame, Mkristo Bruce-Washington State

Defensive Tackle
Frank Okam-Texas, Quinn Pitcock-Ohio State

Honorable Mention
Kareem Brown-Miami (FL), Derek Landri-Notre Dame, Brandon Mebane-California

Inside Linebacker
Patrick Willis-Ole Miss

Honorable Mention
Desmond Bishop-California, Rey Maualuga-USC

Outside Linebacker
Brian Cushing-USC, Rufus Alexander-Oklahoma

Honorable Mention
Paul Posluszny-Penn State_, Jon Beason-Miami (FL), Tavares Gooden-Miami (FL)

Cornerback
Reggie Smith-Oklahoma, Daymeion Hughes-California

Honorable Mention
Antoine Cason-Arizona, J.R. Bryant-Florida State, Marcus McCauley-Fresno State

Free Safety
LaRon Landry-LSU

Honorable Mention
Anthony Reddick-Miami (FL), Reggie Nelson-Florida, Josh Pinkard-USC

Strong Safety
Brandon Merriweather-Miami (FL)

Honorable Mention
Michael Johnson-Arizona, Aaron Rouse-Virginia Tech, Michael Griffin-Texas

Punter
Daniel Sepulveda-Baylor 

Quarterback
Brady Quinn-Notre Dame

Honorable Mention
Troy Smith-Ohio State, Brian Brohm-Louisville, Jordan Palmer-UTEP

Running Back
Adrian Peterson-Oklahoma, Marshawn Lynch-California

Honorable Mention
Jamaal Charles-Texas, Michael Bush-Louisville, Garrett Wolfe-Northern Illinois, Steve Slaton-West Virginia

Tight End
Greg Olsen-Miami (FL), Zach Miller-Arizona State

Honorable Mention
Fred Davis-USC, Jonny Harline-BYU

Wide Receiver
Dwayne Jarrett-USC, Sidney Rice-South Carolina, Calvin Johnson-Georgia Tech

Honorable Mention
Jeff Samardzija-Notre Dame, Jarrett Hicks-Texas Tech, Mario Urrutia-Louisville, Andre Caldwell-Florida

Kicker
Mason Crosby-Colorado

***Note: I do not name offensive linemen because it's not a position I'm the most familiar with nationally.  I can name you guys that are being hyped like center Dan Mozes at West Virginia, center Ryan Kalil at USC, tackle Sam Baker at USC, tackle Levi Brown at Penn State and guard/tackle Justin Blalock at Texas, but who is to say they're better than tackle Tony Ugoh at  Arkansas or tackle John Greco at Toledo?  Therefore, no offensive linemen are listed, at least for the preseason.

Occassionally I host some data on here provided by college football stat historian Tex Noel.  You can find a few of his works here, available for download (mostly in word and excel format depending on the data).

I've just added another data set that you can find on the link (located in CFR's Features page) in excel format titled: TeamBestNC1936-2005.xls

For an explanation, here's Mr. Noel:

College Football fans and alums always have an on-going aguement---which team was the best at "Dear old Alma Mater!"

Would Oklahoma's 1956 squad, considered by many as one of the greatest in the history of college, be a better national champion than the 1985 eleven?  When Notre Dame won its last title in 1988 was it superior to the 1943 team?

How about the Minnesota team of 1940--how superior was it than the 1941 team, as these Golden Gopher units became the first college football team to win back-to-back AP titles. Florida State's 1999 team was the first one to be ranked first in the Pre-Season AP Poll and never relinquish its hold at No. 1--was it better than the 1993 team?

Until now, as with anything relating to college football, every fan had their say so with maybe only a handful of facts to support his claim.

The old cliche comparing teams is like apples and oranges...or Team A played less games than Team B from a respective school...so Team B had the advantage of more games to prove its worth.

To paraphase a quote that appeared in the Nov. 1982 College Football Researchers Association (CFRA) monthly Bulletin:
All that counts is the team that accomplished the most (highest) is the better team (regardless of the number of games it played.)

1st-N-Goal has compiled a compilation of NCAA Major College/1A National Champions (Consensus-Major, 1936-2005) of schools winning more two or more titles and ranked them amongist other champions from the same school--using 11 categories...ranking them based on the total number of titles won.

For example Notre Dame has claimed 9 national champions, [using AP, UPI, FWAA, NFFHF, USA TODAY CNN/ESPN selectors] so, each of its champions in the 11 categories were assigned a Point Value based on 9 for the highest...down to 1 for the lowest.  In contrast, Army won back-to-back titles in 1944-45, and its highest Point Value would only be 2, with 1 still be the smallest value earned.

This compilation isn't to see which team of the 17 schools that have won consensus championships is the greatest overall, but which is the school's best champion of All-Time.

As a teasor, here's one of the most ironic findings of the compilation: Both Alabama and Southern California claimed the top spot in 1978...and both school's highest Point Value were in that season.  It's an unusual finding given that "experts" consider the Trojans eleven of 1972 one of the greatest in the history of college football history.

Holding true-to-form, Nebraska's 1971 unit--always amongst those listed as a great team, was the highest ranked champion in that school's history.

Enjoy and any questions or comments, send them to me.

Tex/1st-N-Goal

Sounds cool, be sure and take a look.  The description above will make a lot more sense once you take a look at the data which takes only a few seconds to download.

Please note that this list is sort of a power ranking to answer not "where will X team finish/be ranked at the end of the year?" but rather "how good is team X?"

1. Ohio State
2. USC
3. Auburn
4. Notre Dame (+3)
5. Texas (-1)
6. California
7. Miami (+2)
8. Georgia (-3)
9. Louisville (-1)
10. Oklahoma (+4)
11. Florida
12. West Virginia (-2)
13. Iowa (-1)
14. Michigan (+1)
15. Arizona State (NEW)

Others In Consideration:

Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Oregon, Arkansas, Alabama, LSU, Texas Tech, Utah, TCU

I felt I should update this as my previous preseason rankings were last updated on the 5^th of June.

The most surprising change may be Oklahoma's bump from 14th to 10th despite the dismissal of starting quarterback Rhett Bomar.  The more I think about the Sooners, the more I like what they'll do this year: play great defense (talented overall unit) and utilize an even more athletic quarterback in Paul Thompson who has some running ability.  He will be throwing to an excellent sophomore go-to receiver in Malcolm Kelly and the great Adrian Peterson as always will carry much of the offensive burden.  I hunch Oklahoma will heavily shift to an offense where the quarterback is a constant run threat which should give them a little more offensive identity and hopefully points.  The offensive line is definitely shaky and Thompson could gag at this opportunity much as he did last year, but I'm a bit more bullish on their prospects than before.

I've bumped Florida State from the top 15 after having an interesting conversation about the FSU/Miami game with a friend who is very knowledgeable about Florida recruiting and has some contacts around both programs.  By his estimate Miami is a much more talented team and despite all their offseason woes should be quite good.  The Seminoles remain a talented and competitive team, but aren't as talented as one would presume.  Both the defensive and offensive lines are looking a little sad compared to recent Seminole teams and that should be a worry.

Finally, keep an eye out for Alabama.  The prevailing logic is that with the graduation of some defensive standouts and quarterback Brodie Croyle from what was already a sub-par offense, they should decline this year.  However, I'm taking a flier on new quarterback John Parker Wilson who played in a high-octane offense in high school and who should be a fresh face for the offense to rally around.  He has two quality receivers to throw to in D.J. Hall and Keith Brown, a more veteran offensive line and what should be a fine set of backs including Kenneth Darby and the talented Jimmy Johns, a converted quarterback.  The secondary remains talented and up the middle defensively Alabama has a pair of 300-pound seniors who should quietly clog things up inside. 

***
Previous:

• It's Early, But... 

This is part seven of seven in an ongoing analysis of eight years of "turnover margin" data at the various BCS conference schools.

Notre Dame

(+7,-4,+12,+3,+5,+2,+5,+10) Grand Total: +40

Bob Davie is responsible for the first four years of data, Tyrone Willingham the next three and Charlie Weis the final one.  An easily identifiable pattern with Davie emerges.  Rising margin, good record, declining margin, poor record.  The 1998 squad finished at +7 and a 9-3 record.  The next year the Irish went to -4 and the record fell to 5-7.  They then jumped to +12 and improved to 9-3 before dropping to +3 and 5-6.  Willingham benefited greatly from a defense that forced timely turnovers his first season.  That team would finish at +5 and had a 10-3 record.  He was able to maintain a positive turnover margin all three seasons in South Bend (overall +12) but the Irish record would fall to 5-7 and 6-6.  Charlie Weis boosted the turnover margin to +10 last year thanks to an efficient quarterback and an opportunistic defense, and the Irish rebounded to 9-3.

Army

(-3,-4,-6,-16,-14,-20,+3,-2) Grand Total: -62

Wow, eight years of data, just one positive return.  Such is life for any Academy school that cannot effectively run a gimmick offense to compensate for the obvious talent gap between themselves and other powerhouse D-I football programs.  Bob Sutton owns the first two totals, Todd Berry the next four and Bobby Ross the last two.  In 1998 (the first year of data presented here) the Black Knights went 3-8, but were two seasons removed from a 10-2 effort.  They followed that up with another 3-8 season and Sutton was gone in favor of Todd Berry.  Berry would win just five games in his four-year stay with Army, including an 0-13 season in 2003 (-20 turnovers).  The wheels clearly fell off and the turnover numbers don't hide it (-16,-14,-20).  Bobby Ross was hired to probably make the last coaching stop in his respectable career.  He's stopped the bleeding as far as turnovers goes, and the team has gone 2-9 and 4-7 in his first two tries.

Navy

(-11,+7,-5,-6,-14,+7,+3,-6) Grand Total: -25

Navy's story isn't as sad as Army's.  Charlie Weatherbie was coach for the first four years of available data, Paul Johnson the last four.  Weatherbie's decline is represented here, as Navy had gone from 3-8 to 5-6 to 9-3 his first three seasons before an inevitable plummet from 1998 onward.  They would go 3-8 (-11), 5-7 (+7), 1-10 (-5) and 0-10 (-6) to close out his run.  Paul Johnson has worked miracles, implementing a frustrating option attack that has boosted the Middies' hopes and record.  They started out rough, at 2-10 (-14) but have since gone 8-5 (+7), 10-2 (+3) and 8-4 (-6).  I expect another positive return this year and a winning record.

Temple

(-4,0,+3,-3,-14,+5,+2,-8) Grand Total: -19

In a college football rarity of sorts, the recently terminated Bobby Wallace owns all eight years of returns for this D-I lightweight.  None of these returns are terribly good or bad outside of 2002's -14 (a 4-8 season).  Thing went downhill these last three seasons after three straight seasons of 4-7/4-7/4-8.  The owls finished 1-11, 2-9 and 0-11 despite two positive turnover returns.  The available talent meant that although they could control their turnovers it was just one was of plugging thousands of holes in Temple's symbolic dam.

Alright, that's it, this series is over except for what is hopefully a brief summary entry in the coming days.

***
Previous:

• Turnover Analysis: Big East
• Turnover Analysis: Pac-10
• Turnover Analysis: Big Ten
• Turnover Analysis: Big 12
• Turnover Analysis: SEC
• Turnover Analysis: ACC
• Turnover Data
  

This is part six of seven in a series of entries analyzing eight years of turnover margin data at BCS conference schools.

Cincinnati

(-17,+2,+12,+4,+1,0,-5,-7) Grand Total: -10

Can you believe Rick Minter coached this program nearly a decade?  His reign lasted from 1994 to 2003 (with our turnover data starting in 1998).  That 1998 squad finished just 2-9.  Thing is, the Bearcats won eight games the season prior.  The last time the Bearcats won more than eight games, the great Sid Gillman was the coach (1949 to 1954---he went 7-4, 8-4, 10-1, 8-1, 9-1 and 8-2---yes, scheme matters).

History aside, there's five seasons of neutral or positive turnover margin after the -17 debacle with Cincinnati going 3-8 (+2), 7-5 (+12), 7-5 (+4), 7-7 (+1) and 5-7 (0).  Mark Dantonio was then hired and has yet to post a positive return on turnover margin.  He's gone 7-5 and 4-7 in his two years.  I anticipate a positive turnover margin this time around.

Connecticut

(+10,-11,-7,-5,+12,0,-5,+4) Grand Total: -2

The Huskies joined the D-IA ranks during the 2000 season, but our data goes back to 1998.  That year also marked the program's highest victory total ever, a 10-3 effort in Skip Holtz's final season.  The job has been Randy Edsall's since.  Connecticut dropped to 4-7 (-11) in 1999 and won just three games in its inaugural D-IA try (3-8, -7).  Thing got worse before they got better with a 2-9 effort in 2001 (-5).

The big change happened in 2002, with the Huskies going 6-6 (+12) and never looking back.  The last three years look like this: 9-3 (0), 8-4 (-5), 5-6 (+4).

Louisville

(-3,-5,+11,+10,-15,+3,+11,+6) Grand Total: +18

The combustible John L. Smith is responsible for the first five seasons represented here, the high bail flight threat Bobby Petrino the last three.  Smith inherited a 1-10 team from Ron Cooper, and swiftly turned the Cardinals around with a pair of 7-5 seasons despite negative turnover returns.  Thanks to some quality recruiting and two superb turnover margins, the Cardinals made "The Leap" and went 9-3 and 11-2 (+11 and +10 in turnovers) before a drop to 7-6 behind the disastrous -15 turnover margin.  Since then, Petrino's had this team flirting with the top 10-15 rankings, going 9-4, 11-1 and 9-3, all with positive turnover numbers.  Some credit is due to some great quarterbacks (Stefan LeFlor, Brian Brohm) who have not had interception issues.

Pittsburgh

(-9,0,-11,-5,+10,+5,+13,-4) Grand Total: -1

The quietly successful Walt Harris owns the first eight returns, Dave Wannstedt the last one.  Harris has a spotty turnover record, but appears to have figured things out his final three seasons (+10,+5,+13).  All three also mark Pitt's highest win totals during his eight-season tenure (9-4,8-5,8-4).  He was able to post a pair of 7-5 seasons despite the daunting -11 and -5 turnover returns in 2000 and 2001.  Wannstedt went 5-6 last year and is considered a defensive-minded guy.  I hunch he won't stay in the negative turnover column for too long.  Having a competent senior quarterback like Tyler Palko never hurts, either.

Rutgers

(-12,-5,-7,-22,-13,-6,-7,-3) Grand Total: -75

Heh.  This is just tough to look at.  Not a single positive turnover return in eight seasons of data.  Poor Rutgers fans.  At least the program's finally improving.  Terry Shea owns the first three returns (5-6, 1-10 and 3-8 seasons), Greg Schiano the next five.  To its credit, Rutgers has put faith in Schiano (hired from Miami, Fl) and its investment may finally be paying off after a 7-5 season.  Schiano started out pretty rough, losing a combined net of 35 turnovers his first two years (2-9 and 1-11 efforts).  But the program's shown life since, increasing its wins (5-7, 4-7 and 7-5) and dropping its turnover debtload (-6,-7,-3).  This year they're overdue for a positive turnover margin.

Oh, also a quick side story.  I was visiting family in Miami for Christmas one year (2001, I believe), and upon leaving the airport there was a huge billboard along the freeway proclaiming Christmas greetings from the Rutgers football program.  It was clearly an effort by Schiano (who had coached at Miami and knew the area) to divert the eyes of overlooked Florida football recruits to lovely New Jersey.  I doubt it did him any good, but clearly the guy is willing to give it the old college try.  Amazingly enough, his persistence has paid off.

South Florida

(-1,-3,-2,+2,+21,-1-10,+5) Grand Total: +11

The Bulls did not join the D-IA ranks until the 2001 season and have only been playing football since 1997.  Jim Leavitt's been the program's coach all nine years (eight within this data set).  His best win total is unsurprisingly linked to the great +21 turnover margin posted in 2002 (9-2 record).  Since then, they've gone 7-4 (-1), 4-7 (-10) and 6-6 (+5).  Turnovers go down, record goes down, turnovers go up, record goes up---it's a pretty consistent pattern at most schools CFR's analyzed.

Syracuse

(+11,-7,-6,+18,+2,+7,+2,-4) Grand Total: +23

Paul Pasqualoni was the longtime captain of this ship, coaching from 1991 to 2004.  Greg Robinson was the coach last year.  Things were running smoothly for this program until 2002 when the wheels fell off.  The Orange went 8-4 in 1998 (+11), then 7-5 (-7) and 6-5 (-6) before a great rebound to 10-3 (+18!), then fell to 4-8 (+2), 6-6 (+7) and 6-6 (+2).  I find it unusual that they could maintain positive turnover numbers with a middling record but be above .500 with negative numbers.  Confusing, but hey, that's football sometimes.  Robinson owns a 1-10 mark to start his Syracuse career, but at least the -4 isn't a disastrous start.

West Virginia

(+6,-5,+9,-8,+19,+16,+3,+14) Grand Total: +54

The esteemed Don Nehlen owns the first three totals (coaching the Mountaineers from 1980 to 2000!).  They went 8-4 (+6), 4-7 (-5) and 7-5 (+9) his final three seasons.  That legacy was then inherited by a man who clearly understands the power of turnovers---Rich Rodriguez.  After an understandably bumpy transition (3-8 season in 2001, -8 margin), things have gone skyward for West Virginia.  Rodriguez improved to 9-4 (+19 and a 27 turnover swing in just two seasons), 8-5 (+16) and 8-4 (+3) before last year's remarkable 11-1 finish (+14).  I anticipate continued turnover success, as Rodriguez is in the mold of guys like Phil Fullmer, Barry Alvarez and Pete Carroll who annually produce high positive turnover margins.

***
Previous:

• Turnover Analysis: Pac-10
• Turnover Analysis: Big Ten
• Turnover Analysis: Big 12
• Turnover Analysis: SEC
• Turnover Analysis: ACC
• Turnover Data
  

 

Part five of seven in this series examining eight years of turnover margin data: Pac-10

Arizona

(+11,-12,+10,-7,-7,-5,+3,-9) Grand Total: -16

Dick Tomey was still coaching the Wildcats during the first three years of this analysis (although his tenure seems so very long ago), starting with the 12-1 season in 1998.  The Wildcats then slide to 6-6 and 5-6.  It's interesting that they had such a wild swing of turnovers from year to year like that (+11,-12,+10).  The poisonous John Mackovic era would rule the next three years, with repeated negative turnover margins and a free-falling record from 5-6 to 4-8 to 2-10.  Mike Stoops has coached the last two seasons, both 3-8 efforts.  With a nearly double-digit negative turnover margin last year, it's likely the Wildcats will improve greatly in that department this year.

Arizona State

(-2,-9,+8,-8,+4,-4,+5,+7) Grand Total: +1

Another name from the past, Bruce Snyder coached the Sun Devils for the first three returns, going 5-6, 6-6 and 6-6.  Dirk Koetter has been the head man since, improving from 4-7 (-8) to 8-6 (+4), then dropping to 5-7 (-4) and then improving the last two years to 9-3 (+5) and 7-5 (+7).  Turnover margin is a nice prediction of team success or failure in the Koetter era.

California

(+6,-5,-4,-18,+18,+3,+2,-6) Grand Total: -4

The disastrous Tom Holmoe was head coach for the first four totals, as the Bears declined in victories each season (5-6 record, then 4-7,3-8 and 1-10).  Jeff Tedford was hired, and Cal started its amazing turnaround.  A 36-turnover swing from one season to the next helped Cal roar back from the 1-10 doldrums to a 7-5 effort in 2002.  They've since gone 8-6, 10-2 and 8-4.  Much of last year's negative total can be credited to the interception-prone Joe Ayoob at quarterback.  Things should improve this year with a more veteran defense to support what should be a better quarterbacking effort.

Oregon

(-10,+11,+6,+16,+5,-5,-2,+13) Grand Total: +34

This is all the work of coach Mike Bellotti.  Oregon went 8-4 in 1998 (-10) before a fine three-year run that saw them go 9-3, 10-2 and 11-1 behind the efforts of quarterback Joey Harrington.  Their turnover efforts were fantastic in those years, but fell precipitously until last year.  The team record shows a similar pattern, with the Ducks falling from 11-1 to 7-6, 8-5 and 5-6 before last year's resurgence at 10-2 (+13).  Turnovers help tell a story here, and they're something to keep an eye on this season with Oregon trying to maintain momentum from last year's 10-win effort.

Oregon State

(-3,+7,+18,-7,+8,-8,+3,-14) Grand Total: +4

Mike Riley owns the first total (coinciding with a 5-6 record), followed by Dennis Erickson the next four years.  Erickson would go 7-5 and 11-1 before falling to 5-6 and then improving to 8-5.  The turnovers paint an accurate picture for his fate, mirroring the rise and fall of the record.  Riley retured to the team in 2003, maintaining an 8-5 mark before sliding to 7-5 and 5-6.  Interception nightmare quarterback Matt Moore contributed heavily to last year's -14 turnover margin.

Stanford

(+2,+10,0,+3,-5,+1,+8,+4) Grand Total: +23

Tyrone Willingham's final four years at the farm are represented here.  His teams went 3-8 (+2), 8-4 (+10), 5-6 (0) and 9-3 (+3) before being hired at Notre Dame.  Buddy Teevens was then hired and never found much success, going 2-9 (-5), 4-7 (+1) and 4-7 (+8).  Walt Harris coached last year's Cardinal team, finishing 5-6 and +4.  Counting his stay at Pitt, Harris has now coached four consecutive seasons with positive turnover margin.

UCLA

(+17,-3,+7,-3,+2,-1,-6,+6) Grand Total: +19

Ahhh, UCLA.  Bob Toledo was the coach responsible for the first five totals.  Not surprisingly, the +17 was part of the 1998 season that saw the Bruins go 10-2 in a brief island of success where the Bruins won 20 consecutive games and had another 10-2 record the season previous.  Those two successes were sandwiched inbetween 5-6 and 4-7 seasons.  UCLA's not used to being able to handle success, I guess.

Toledo would ride out his tenure going 4-7 (-3), 6-6 (+7), 7-4 (-3) and 8-5 (+2).  Karl Dorrell was then hired, coaching two nondescript efforts at 6-7 and 6-6 before last season's resurgence at 10-2.  Despite starting quarterback Drew Olson throwing just four six interceptions, UCLA managed just +6 in turnover margin last year.  Hopefully new defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker can help improve that situation.

USC

(+11,+14,-19,+16,+18,+20,+19,+21) Grand Total: +100

Simply amazing.  The lone blemish was the forgettable Paul Hackett's final season (2000, -19) where the Trojans finished 5-7 and at the bottom of the Pac-10.  But even the lowly Hackett managed to string together seasons of +11 and +14 before his termination in 2000.

In five years, Pete Carroll has yet to have anything less than a double-digit positive return on turnover margin.  I've gone through eight years of turnover margin data at every BCS school and there's simply nothing like what Carroll has done with this statistic.  From day one he was able to get the team to change its turnover fate, and although the record lagged his first season, it caught up in a big way as USC has been the face of college football since 2002 (11-2, 12-1,13-0,12-1).

Washington

(-8,-2,-3,-2,+1,-4,-19,-3) Grand Total: -40

This is disappointing to look at.  The once-proud Huskies have had four coaches during this time frame, starting with Jim Lambright who would finish 6-6 before they hired Rick Neuheisel from Colorado.  "Skippy" would greatly improve the team's fate, helping them to 7-5, 11-1,8-4 and 7-6 records before his termination, but the turnovers never mirrored the team's success.  The poison around his tenure and termination have been disastrous for the program, with its record falling to 6-6 and then 1-10 under Keith Gilbertson and then last year at 2-9 with Tyrone Willingham.

Washington State

(-17,-4,-1,+12,-4,+8,-1,-5) Grand Total: -12

Mike Price was the Cougars' coach for the first five totals here.  Washington State has been a feast or famine program for many years now, which helps explain its diverse record.  The Cougars were a 10-2 Rose Bowl team in 1997, but fell on hard times in 1998, dropping to 3-8 with a -17 turnover margin.  That was followed by 3-9 and 4-7 records before Jason Gesser emerged, leading them to 10-2 and 10-3 marks (+12,-4).  Price left to screw up his opportunity with Alabama, but Doba was able to keep the engine running for another full season, coaching the Cougars to a 10-3 record (+8).  Since then, it's been more famine than feast with the turnover numbers dropping along with the record (5-6 and 4-7 the last two years).

***
Previous:

• Turnover Analysis: Big Ten
• Turnover Analysis: Big 12
  
• Turnover Analysis: SEC
• Turnover Analysis: ACC
• Turnover Data
  

Alright, it's about time for me to complete this series (Origin-Big 12-SEC-ACC).

Part four of seven today: The Big Ten.

Illinois

(-11,+13,-2,+4,-8,-18,-6,-11) Grand Total: -39

The first seven totals represent year two through eight of the Ron Turner era.  Turner inherited a 2-9 team from Lou Tepper, and then "led" his first squad to a winless season.  He improved to 3-8 the next year (-11) and then pushed the next team to a winning 8-4 record (+13).  His incredible 10-2 effort in 2001 had the benefit of a fairly modest +4 turnover margin but then things went downhill.  Record of 5-7 (-8), 1-11 (horrible -18) and 3-8 (-6) led the Illini to can him and hire one Ron Zook.  Zook didn't fare much better last year, engineering just two wins and a sad -11 turnover margin.

Indiana

(+3,+1,-16,+7,-12,+3,+4,-8) Grand Total: -18

These totals almost date back to the Bill Mallory era (1984-1996).  The three Hoosier coaches during this time period are Cam Cameron (first four years and his second through fifth season at Indiana), Gerry DiNardo and Terry Hoeppner.  During this time Indiana has yet to record a single winning season, topping out at 5-6 in 2001 in Cameron's final year.

Indiana's best record (5-6 in 2001) is mirrored by its best turnover margin (+7).  The DiNardo years were sad despite two positive turnover totals, and Hoeppner fared better (4-7) despite a bad -8 margin his first time out.  There is hope with Hoeppner and it's likely the Hoosiers will improve their turnover totals and perhaps their win total this year.

Iowa

(-1,-5,-3,0,+15,+4,+13,-1) Grand Total: +22

The great Kirk Ferentz is responsible for all but one of these totals, with Hayden Fry the owner of the first, part of a 3-8 effort to end his fine coaching career.  Ferentz had difficulties his first two years, going 1-10 and 3-9, but pushed the Hawkeyes to 7-5 despite three straight years of negative or neutral turnover returns.  His next three seasons were even more brilliant, going 11-2, 10-3 and 10-2, mirrored by +15, +4 and +13 turnover returns.

Last year the Hawkeyes returned to orbit a bit, finishing at 7-5 with a -1 turnover margin.  What's interesting is that Ferentz was able to get the Hawkeyes into a 7-5 type season before their big run without the power of positive turnover margin.  He then was able to make that giant leap into elite status by harnessing the power of high positive turnover margin.  If the Hawkeyes are to contend again this year, keep a lookout for their turnover totals, they may be a good indicator of whether they're on pace for a good 7-5 season or a great 10-2 season.

Michigan

(-3,+10,+13,-6,+9,-2,+6,+5) Grand Total: +32

Lloyd Carr is responsible for all eight years detailed here.  The first total is from 1998, a post-championship year that probably explains the -3 and a 10-3 record (down from the previous 12-0).  Michigan owns four 10-win seasons in these eight years, going 10-3 in 1998 (-3), 10-2 in 1999 (+10), 10-3 in 2002 (+9) and 10-3 in 2003 (-2).  Five positive totals in eight years is a fine effort and Michigan is a fine---if maddening---team.  Michigan hasn't embarrassed itself with turnovers in any given season and great turnover margins are often punctuated with 10-win seasons.  Good stuff.

Michigan State

(+3,-3,-8,-1,-7,+11,-10,-1) Grand Total: -16

First total (+3): Nick Saban.  Next total (-3): Nick Saban and Bobby Williams.  The difference: one season the Spartans went 6-6, the next one 10-2.  Sometimes turnovers don't tell the story.  Bobby Williams coached the next three years (-8,-1,-7) going 5-6, 7-5 and 4-8.  John L. Smith has been the Spartans' cranky commander since, rallying around a +11 effort to go 8-5 before the chaos (-10,-1) of the last two seasons at 5-7 and 5-6 have him on thin ice in East Lansing.

Minnesota

(-1,-2,+2,+2,0,-1,+7,-1) Grand Total: +6

Look above once more.  That's hilarious.  Is Glen Mason the kind of guy who dangles his feet in the pool, never to dive in or what?  Mason has done a great job with this program, giving them five winning seasons in his nine years in charge.  I'd say more, but turnover margin isn't telling the story here.  The outlier at +7 followed 2003's 10-3 effort, Minnesota's first 10-win effort since 1905!  Of course, that +7 meant a drop from a 10-3 record to 7-5.  Go figure.

Northwestern

(-3,-6,+13,-1,-6,-2,+4,+9) Grand Total: +8

Gary Barnett left the Wildcats in 1998 (-3, 3-9 record), and what follows is the recently departed Randy Walker era.  Northwestern went from 3-8 (-6) to 8-4 (+13) in his first two years on the job.  Walker's two best efforts were aided by his two best turnover margins: the aforementioned 8-4 season in 2000 and last year's 7-5 at +9.

Ohio State

(+5,-8,+8,+9,+13,+1,-1,-9) Grand Total: +18

John Cooper coached the Buckeyes for the first three years of the available data, going 11-1, 6-6 and 8-4.  Jim Tressel has been the Buckeyes' coach for five years now, winning a national championship in 2002 (+13).  He has lost a bit of the early turnover momentum but the Buckeyes are likely poised for a turnover margin rebound after three consecutive pedestrian years (turnover margin, not record).

Penn State

(+3,+2,+4,-11,+14,-6,-3,+3) Grand Total: +6

Obviously Joe Paterno is responsible for the eight-year window of data we have here.  The most notable information here is the swing from -11 in 2001 to +14 in 2002.  In those two years the Nittany Lions went from 5-6 to 9-4, before falling to 3-9 and 4-7 the following years (-6,-3) before last year's revival at 11-1 (+3).

Purdue

(+5,+1,0,+11,-10,+12,-3,+3) Grand Total: +19

Joe Tiller has been the coach here all eight years (and one season previous).  The turnover data here is interesting.  In 1998 Purdue went 9-4 with a +5 turnover margin.  The next year they went 7-5 at +1.  The next year they went 8-4 at 0.  Not much of a correlation there.  But then their record fell to 6-6 despite a tremendous +11 effort.  The next season, they improved slightly to 7-6 despite a huge negative swing at -10.  That was followed by 2003's 9-4 effort and +12 margin.  Purdue then dropped to 7-5 (-3) and 5-6 (+3).

Wisconsin

(+23,+11,+7,+2,+18,-3,+2,+13) Grand Total: +73

Awesome.  Barry Alvarez retired last year, but leaves a legacy as a turnover wonk.  In an eight-year window he manufactured four double-digit positive turnover margin returns, including an impressive +23 and +18.  The Badgers' win total during this time nicely mirrors the ascent/descent of their turnover margin.

11-1 (+23), 10-2 (+11), 9-4 (+7), 5-7 (+2), 8-6 (+18), 7-6 (-3), 9-3 (+2), 10-3 (+13).  That's a very noticeable pattern.

Praise goes to the Badgers for simply doing the near-impossible in controlling their turnover numbers year-after-year, it's something few coaches have any ability to manage based on the data I've analyzed.

Alright, that's it for the Big Ten, more to come as CFR concludes this presentation.

***
Previous:

• Turnover Analysis: Big 12
• Turnover Analysis: SEC
• Turnover Analysis: ACC
• Turnover Data
  

Never too early for a top teams list.

These are my "post-spring, Pre-Steele team rankings"

Relevant, thoughtful criticism is welcomed.  Maybe I'll amend the list in subsequent updates based on intelligent responses.

As always, this list is about the "best" teams.  I'm not looking at schedules and making predictions based on expected outcomes here, merely assessing the overall quality of the teams.  Expected records are important, but not the only measures factored in when doing these rankings.  That's how it should be, anyway.

1. Ohio State---This will simply be the finest offense Jim Tressel has ever gotten ahold of.  There are concerns with a defense returning just three starters, but the Buckeyes are a rugged defensive squad no matter the players and have a handful of "new" starters with legit starting experience coming back from injuries, academic woes, etc.  I've ragged on their slowdown style of late, but this is a roster that can run and dominate on both sides of the ball almost by accident.  Jim Tressel has won a championship and has a great shot at getting his second crown this year.
   
2. USC---The big theme this year is that everyone's flawed.  If that's the case, the always No. 1 or damn close Trojans should be big factors once again.  There isn't a consensus No. 1 team and it's an environment USC stepped into at the start of the 2003 season.  That team also had to replace an entire backfield of veteran stars (Palmer/Fargas/McCullough vs. Leinart/White/Bush) and cruised through the season after some early troubles.  This is the deepest, most athletic USC team in memory.  They lack a star to rally around, but the rest of the roster is young, surprisingly experienced and can fly.  The battered, young defense of 2005 will be great in 2006 if it can stay healthy.
3. Auburn---I was shocked by last year's bowl performance against Wisconsin.  I'll chalk that up to a little lethargy in not making the SEC title game and a bigger bowl and the going-out party for Wisky's coach Barry Alvarez.  Anyway, the Tigers' roster is loaded.  The defense is smallish but can absolutely fly at all spots on the two-deep.  Brandon Cox is a nifty system quarterback and the stable of backs may be America's finest (my apologies to California, Clemson, Georgia and co.).  These tigers have the opportunity to win through versatility, possessing the personnel and schemes to either attack through a frenetic offensive and defensive display or maul foes in slow down ball.  Few teams are so blessed.
4. Texas---Football Jesus is gone.  Christendom's had a frustrating time since His physical presence vacated this lovely planet.  Texas fans will be similarly frustrated now that Vince Young has ditched Austin for the No Fun League.  Don't get me wrong, the 'Horns will remain an impressive team, but the big guy's gone.  The defense won't lose much (Huff and Wright can be replaced---look out for big DT Frank Okam), but the offense will have its moments of paralysis.  Another fine season is in the works, but it just won't be the same.  Think of Texas' many great non-championship seasons under Mack Brown.  The difference of course it that this year's team should beat Oklahoma for the second straight time.
5. Georgia---Much like the President, Georgia coach Mark Richt always pulls a rabbit out of his hat when people misunderestimate him.  I'm not enamored with the Dawgs' backs or the lines and they have yet to fix a leaky run defense... but dammit it doesn't always matter.  These Dawgs are going to go out and beat all but one and possibly two SEC foes big or small.  Freshman quarterback Matthew Stafford is a potential phenom, and towards the end of the year may have this team doing some things on offense Dawg fans have not seen from any quarterback between the hedges.  Last year was a golden opportunity to finish third or fourth in the rankings before injuries got in the way.  Coach Richt probably realizes this and may put together the scrappiest, most competitive UGA squad of his tenure.
6. California---Much of this team's fate rests with settling on a competent quarterback and rebuilding a great offensive line.  The defense replaced nearly every starter last year, which means everyone's back this time around.  That's a luxury for any coach and Cal will take advantage of it.  The offense has some serious star power behind superback Marshawn Lynch, backfield mate Justin Forsett and freaky good receiver DeSean Jackson.  With a balanced team on both sides of the ball, the Bears will challenge USC for Pac-10 surpremacy.
7. Notre Dame---I'm all aboard the Charlie Weis bandwagon.  However, I'm not sure this Notre Dame team is quite ready for prime time.  I realize most everybody returns, but the Fiesta Bowl revealed some holes yet to be fixed.  The Irish choked away scoring opportunities in the harsh BCS light, and a shaky defense watched faster players run circles around them for an entire game.  The Irish have not gotten any faster on defense.  Brady Quinn is an amazing leader, and he'll need to be as the Irish offense will have to carry this team the way USC's offense did last year.  The difference is USC was coming off two championships and had two Heisman winners and LenDale White along with college football's best offensive line to work with.  The Irish have ho-hum Darius Walker and the amazing Jeff Samardzija.  Big difference.  The target will be on this team's back every step of the way.  For a team built with mostly middling recruits, the heavy burdens of national attention every week, talk of an undefeated season and Brady Quinn's Heisman run, it will be interesting to see how they handle it.
   
8. Louisville---Why not West Virginia?  Because this team will have a huge chip on its shoulder.  They let a win against the Mountaineers disappear into an overtime loss as Steve Slaton scored six touchdowns against the Cardinals last year.  All the Big East hype will be directed at the Mountaineers, but Louisville is an equally talented team with a greater breadth of offensive weapons and scheme to attack with.  Quarterback Brian Brohm should be healthy this time around.
9. Miami---"It's Great, To Be, A Miami Hurricane!"  At least, that's what they say.  Who am I to disagree?  After an embarrassing loss to LSU in last year's Peach Bowl, this Miami team will finally have the motivation necessary to kill any lingering lethargy that has overtaken Coral Gables since the Fiesta Bowl loss to Ohio State in 2002.  A new coaching staff, a rugged defense and a gifted quarterback sounds like the right recipe to get back to the winning ways.  They're not ready for prime time yet, but a return to the top 10 is a good start.
10. West Virginia---The last time West Virginia had this much preseason hype, they flopped.  It happens, but it's especially hard to keep big fish/small pond teams focused over the course of a season when they're the topic of national discussion since January.  Young stars Patrick White (quarterback) and back Steve Slaton should dazzle fans and opponents.  The trick is to consistently win and overcome setbacks for a team with young offensive stars with great expectations.
11. Florida---I realize year two is usually a magic season for Urban Meyer coached teams, but I'm concerned.  Chris Leak really isn't a good fit at quarterback, and it will be hard for the more athletic and fiery Tim Tebow to politically get much legitimate playing time from the former all-everything recruit.  The offensive line is also a huge problem and coach Meyer threatened to bench all the backs and not bother running the ball in a fit earlier in the spring.  Ouch.  That said, the defense should be good to great and the incoming crop of recruits will shake things up on offense because some of them can run and make plays such as national hotshot Percy Harvin.  We may have to be just a bit more patient with the Gators as they continue to fix personnel issues on the offensive side of the ball.
12. Iowa---This team is due.  Quarterback Drew Tate's a winner and so is his coach.  The linebacker replacements for Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway are talented dudes and back Albert Young has finally realized he's a legit D-I player.  There are pieces in place for a run at the Big Ten title if Ohio State or Michigan stumble.
13. Florida State---Fix the offense already!  This is a really talented team, among the more talented Seminole groups in the last 10 years.  Drew Weatherford will overcome his interception issues and the backs are going to be fun to watch.  Last year's offensive line injury bug isn't likely to happen again.  The defense loses several starters to the NFL but fear not, names like Myron Rolle, Lawrence Timmons and Geno Hayes will quickly make Seminole fans forget.  The Seminoles got hot at the tail end of last season, findings ways to win until letting the Penn State game slip away.  To me that's a sign that the players and coaches are all on the same page and are ready for a big run in 2006.
14. Oklahoma---Like Florida, the Sooners also have offensive line issues.  There's a lot of young talent here, but by no means do I see a squad as coherent or as talented as the 2000-2004 Sooners.  Adrian Peterson is an unbelievable back who will win a few games by himself... but he can't win them all.
15. Michigan---The proverbial hot stove team---don't touch or you'll get burned.  I've learned my lesson with the Wolverines.  They'll look great at times, disappointing in others, and go 9-3 ad infinitum.  There's some reason for excitement with some talented young defensive linemen emerging, but Lloyd Carr is still the head coach which means Michigan will let 1-2 wins dissolve into bitter late defeats.

Others:

• Clemson---Can they steal a win or two from Florida State or Miami?  There's some intriguing talent on both sides of the ball and they've done some interesting tinkering with the offense.  Fifth year senior quarterback Will Proctor should play with urgency and exceed the inconsistent output of ballyhooed but underwhelming Charlie Whitehurst.
• Arizona State---Some talented transfers have arrived to help the defensive line.  The offense should be great, and do-it-all Rudy Burgess has shifted to cornerback to help out on D.  Nice.  I see a 700-yard game or two in their future with the bombs-away quarterback hydra of Sam Keller and Rudy Carpenter.
• Texas Tech---This is the most talented team yet in Lubbock.  Replacing a quarterback is obviously nothing new to this team so no worries in that department.
• LSU---I'm not taking a lot from the Peach Bowl.  That was a Miami team that had a lot of internal troubles that bubbled to the surface right at kickoff as they melted down on national television.  A fight and several coach firings later, the bowl win seems more an aberration or taking advantage of a wounded foe.  Just saying.  The Tigers need to settle on a quarteback (among JaMarcus Russell and Matt Flyyn) and pray he doesn't cough up the job.  This team can really run but they're more athletic than football savvy in some spots.  If back Alley Broussard and Justin Vincent once again prove inconsistent, keep an eye on frosh backs Charles Scott and Keiland Williams.  They're good... real good.
• TCU---Our first non-BCS mention here.  Gary Patterson's an excellent coach and was able to take out Oklahoma and Iowa State last year.  Not bad.  The Horned Frogs don't do anything fancy, but play smart, tough football, get turnovers and gut out the close ones.  They should factor in here somewhere yet again.

Traditional Powers On The Outs:

Penn State, Nebraska, Alabama

This list is a power ranking, reflecting CFR's opinion of a team's strength at that point in the season.  As such, it very often deviates from more traditional rankings such as the AP poll and other pundits' rankings.

Before I go further, I must add one caveat.  In deference to having won the national championship, Texas is #1 on here.  However, if I am to be the most accurate here I would have USC #1 on the final ranking, much as I would have put Miami #1 in 2001 after a close loss to Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl.

The remaining rankings (2-9) are a true power ranking, however.

Congratulations again to the Texas Longhorns, who did the impossible and did it in style.

Final CFR top teams list 2005-2006 (1/9/2006):

1. Texas-The Great One showed up when it mattered, and put together an amazing final five minutes.  Coach Mack Brown was vindicated and the people of Texas possess something that for so long eluded them.
2. USC-An amazing run.  They're not going anywhere, but losing perhaps the best backfield in college football history will certainly hurt.
   
3. Ohio State-Oh, the controversy!  Thumped a well prepared Notre Dame team.  Coach Jim Tressel is starting to build a legendary bowl reputation.
4. Penn State-Survived a fast, physical Florida State team.  Offense and defense regressed a bit in the big game.
5. Virginia Tech-Bottled up a ready Louisville outfit.
6. Notre Dame-Their athletic limitations caught up to them in a bizarre Fiesta Bowl outing.
7. West Virginia-Well prepared.  Athletic on offense, tough on defense.  Defied the foibles of youth in a tough road win against Georgia.
8. Georgia-Never recovered from WVA's "shock and awe" opening effort.
9. LSU-Roughed up a ready-to-meltdown Miami team with a backup quaterback.  Nice.

Booted:

• Miami-Proof that talent does not equal wins.  Recent coaching changes a painful necessity.  A rolling stone gathers no moss---this team is covered in moss.

Others (in no particular order):

• Auburn-Listless, perhaps because of their rejection from the SEC title game and Wisconsin's last hurrah for Barry Alvarez.
• Oregon-Hard to win with backup quarterbacks.  Switched out a hot Dennis Dixon for Brady Leaf and never regained an offensive rhythm.  Played tough with a faster, bigger, more talented Oklahoma team.  Who says the Pac-10 is soft?
• UCLA-Survived early disaster against Northwestern.  Very quietly shut down the Wildcats' rush attack and scoring offense, as most points were surrendered in deep garbage time.  What little backbone the Bruins had was on full display in El Paso.
• Louisville-Had a good, not good enough performance against a game Virginia Tech squad.  Points for making do with a backup quarterback.
• Alabama-Snuck past a funky Texas Tech team.

I had a difficult time determining a 10^th team.  Perhaps that's the cutoff between the elite teams and everyone else, so  that's why there are only nine teams on the main list.

I'm not a Heisman voter.  I'd love to have the honor of being one.  Someday perhaps.

CollegeFootballResource.com's 2005 Heisman Ballot: 

1. Reggie Bush, USC-I chose Reggie Bush as my Heisman winner last year.  I don't think there's been a player like him in the college game in some time.  Long ago I got over drooling at his highlights, because I see something far greater than those.  I see a ferociously competitive football player, a guy who works hard to put himself in a position to do the great things he does.  He's bailed USC out of a lot of close games in two seasons now, to the point where it's almost commonplace.  They include superhuman shows against Virginia Tech, Stanford, Oregon State, UCLA, Oregon, Arizona State, Notre Dame and Fresno State.  Furthermore, I think the Heisman trophy has evolved to where a player like Reggie Bush becomes a can't-miss Heisman choice.  He's Desmond Howard meets Barry Sanders meets God, if that makes sense.  And he was my easy choice for #1 on the 2005 CollegeFootballResource.com Heisman Ballot.
2. Michael Robinson, Penn State-I dogged him earlier in the year for not being much of a quarterback.  That's ok, he proved to be that much more the team leader.  Robinson willed Penn State through some tough Big Ten games this year, and left their only loss, against Michigan, with the lead.  When challenged, Robinson always answered with a big play and Penn State now has a very well-earned Big Ten title to celebrate.
3. Elvis Dumervil, Louisville-This one's kind of a surprise.  Once in a while a defensive player comes along and puts up numbers that don't even make sense.  Dumervil had 20 sack and 10 forced fumbles.  10!  The Heisman Trophy is awarded to college football's most oustanding individual athlete.  I think Dumervil certainly qualifies to be on a lot of ballots if that's the case.

Before you throw a fit on two guys I left off, I'll give you my reasons:

• Why no Vince Young?  Good question.  For me, it boiled down to this-Texas' schedule was so easy this year Vince Young never really had much of a challenge after the Ohio State game.  The softness of the schedule is not his fault, and I don't hold that against him.  However, his body of work just didn't jump out once I had some time to reflect upon things.  I think back to the Ohio State game, and how the Buckeyes figured out Young's zone read runs after his first handful of long runs.  After that, he was completely shut down and almost coughed the game up twice, throwing a bad interception and averaging just two yards a carry after the first scoring drive.  He did lead Texas down the field on the last scoring drive, however.  The Oklahoma State game was never in doubt, and on his memorable run there was simply nobody there to even attempt a tackle on him.  He looked completely dazed while playing Texas A&M, as well. Vince Young gets a lot of points for leadership and changing the fortunes of an oft-criticized Texas team, and taking them to a 12-0 record.  However, I just never got that Heisman feel from him.
  

• Why no Matt Leinart? Another good question.  The Heisman Trophy isn't a career award.  I felt Matt Leinart was far more impressive last year, guiding USC through a rough schedule behind a new offensive line and new receivers.  This year, he had every tool available and put up fine numbers.  However, aside from the stunningly perfect night against Arkansas and the historic final drive against Notre Dame, Leinart wasn't quite the same player this year.  USC turned to Reggie Bush and LenDale White quite often this year.  Perhaps it was the hit he took against Arizona State early in the year, but there was a several-game stretch where Leinart was in a bit of a fog and didn't appear to be at full faculties to where he could do little more than hold things together instead of leading his team (the burden fell upon Reggie Bush, who obviously delivered).  There is no doubt in my mind that Matt Leinart is the best quarterback in NCAA history, but this year he wasn't particularly Heisman-like in CFR's eyes.

I realize my Heisman updates throughout this season consistently listed Vince Young and Matt Leinart.  As I stated several times, those lists were made more to reflect the Heisman realities than to reflect my own views.  I took some time to reflect upon my choices here, reflecting upon the body of work of the entire 2005-2006 college football season.  As such, this list isn't merely the reaction to last week's games, but to an entire season by a handful of great individual football players.  Hope this clarifies things some.

I have once again updated the CFR Heisman candidate pages.  They are filled with all kinds of information, such as vital stats and rankings, and a cornucopia of links to interesting stories.

They're pretty cool, be sure and take some time to celebrate each of these great football players' seasons once more!

• Reggie Bush-Page
• Vince Young-Page
• Matt Leinart-Page
  

This list is more a reflection of the race's realities at this point.

N-Y-C

1. Reggie Bush, USC-Two amazing final games.  Nearly one-upped his Fresno performance with 250 yards in the first half against UCLA.  Made it memorable by twice soaring into the air as he hurdled defenders.  Will deservedly win the 2005 Heisman Trophy.
2. Vince Young, Texas-Had a fine outing against Colorado, and has been the glue for a strong Texas squad through an undefeated regular season.  On to Pasadena.
3. Matt Leinart-Emotions got to him for the first time ever, as he went Brett Favre and air mailed nearly every first half pass.  Managed to add another three touchdowns as he capped his second undefeated regular season in three attempts.  Sixth place, first place and third place Heisman finishes in a three-year career.  Best quarterback in NCAA history when people get down to arguing these kinds of things.

Others

• Brady Quinn, Notre Dame-Shockingly not invited to New York City.  Oh well, is next year's lead candidate even if Vince Young holds true and returns.
• Drew Olson, UCLA-Put together one of the finest statistical seasons ever for a Pac-10 quarterback.  That's saying a lot.
• Michael Robinson, Penn State-Penn State could have and should have promoted this guy more, he finished very strong and did the unexplainable and led Penn State from the doldrums in a very competitive year in the Big Ten.
• Elvis Dumerville, Louisville-If not for the big three stealing all the headlines, Elvis certainly would have been in the building on December 10th for his unreal season.
• DeAngelo Williams, Memphis-Had one of the most consistently great seasons I've ever seen.
• Jerome Harrison, Washington State-Was nearly unstoppable, even against USC.  Not bad for a guy from a passing school. 

Fin.

Louisiana Tech 40, Fresno State 28

Fresno put all its eggs into the "beat USC" basket, and got burned.  'Twas a noble but misguided cause, as the team now limps into postseason play.

Tulsa 44, UCF 27

In the infancy stages of this season, I wrote about how horrible Tulsa was as Minnesota kicked their butts on both sides of the ball.  Now, they're one of the better teams in their conference.  Their turnaround has been remarkable and admirable.  They have earned every win this season, having built themselves to get better after each successive game instead of selling out for a few early wins and a predictable late collapse.

Texas 70, Colorado 3

Texas has done everything it could this season to put itself in a position for the Rose Bowl.  This was the clincher.

Navy 42, Army 23

Sweet.  I love that this game matters to a lot of people who have absolutely no connection to the academies.

USC 66, UCLA 19

First time I've ever seen Matt Leinart unnerved, although it's understandable given it was his last home game.  It's a huge testament to the USC offense that its quarterback can air mail literally every pass for an entire half and still cinch a game early in the second quarter.

Georgia 34, LSU 14

This wasn't really a surprise, now, was it?  Maybe Boise should have scheduled LSU at the start of the season instead of UGA.  Joking...

West Virginia 28, South Florida 13

The Mountaineers got good a season later than expected.  They're not playing Utah in a BCS bowl like Pittsburgh had to last year, so they've got a chance.

Louisville 30, Connecticut 20

Brohm out, Bush in.  One day they'll both be healthy and the Cardinals will score 80.

Florida State 27, Virginia Tech 22

Ouch.  Here's to Marcus