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Entries in Game Predictions (8)
Tracking the Experts
My thanks, as always, to FanIQ's Jason Kent for passing these along. Please be sure and visit that website from time to time, it's a great place for fan banter and interaction.
---Grading the Experts: Week Five
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Saturday Predictions: Week Two
Central Michigan at Michigan---CMU showed well in last week's near-comeback against Boston College. Michigan's at home and is just too good, however. After the energy of last weekend's game I expect a modest letdown by CMU and an easy win for Michigan.
Penn State at Notre Dame---The Nittany Lions are going to have to fight like hell to hold the Irish under 30 after a disappointing start last weekend. The Irish return home and should look to assert themselves on both sides of the ball. I see an easy Irish win here.
Washington at Oklahoma---Twenty years ago this would have been an amazing game. Now... not so much. The Huskies should be game offensively but in the end Oklahoma prevails. Expect a better outing from Paul Thompson, perhaps on the ground.
Clemson at Boston College---The Eagles had a somewhat disappointing start against Central Michigan, steadily building a big lead before hemorrhaging points late. With perhaps the best offense in school history, I expect Clemson to roar through the majority of its ACC slate and today's game is a win they need to have to live up to expectation. I like Clemson here.
Colorado at Colorado State---To be honest I have no idea what to expect here. Colorado has more talent, but what to make of that I-AA loss last weekend? Stanford was able to recover reasonably well from its I-AA loss last year, so count on a Buffalo rebound sooner rather than later. That said, Colorado State smells blood here and looks to claim their first decisive victory in this series in a while.
Arizona at LSU---This might be a better Pac-10 performance against the SEC given the low national expectations for the Wildcats. That said, the Wildcats don't have much of an offense or run game and don't really expect to win this game. LSU big.
Minnesota at California---The Golden Bears badly need a rebound victory to put the Tennessee performance behind them. They have more than enough talent here and should win with the ground game.
Georgia at South Carolina---The Gamecocks should have a nice homefield advantage here. Both offenses looked sad in their openers and should have a better showing this time out. With great hesitation, I like South Carolina here. They have a little more balanced, competent offense and the crazies cheering them on. This should be a very tight game.
Ohio State at Texas---I could see this game going both ways. Ohio State's defense may be leaky enough for Texas to relax at some point in the game and start scoring some points. The home setting should also help the Longhorns. I actually feel Colt McCoy will have a quality outing, but Ohio State should find its way to just enough points for victory here and make just enough defensive stops, particularly early in the game.
Texas Tech at UTEP---Jordan Palmer was an interception machine last weekend for UTEP, letting San Diego State hang close. That just won't do against Mike Leach's Red Raiders. This should be a wild one, but Texas Tech has the edge and should win by two touchdowns.
Oregon at Fresno State---This is allegedly the biggest game ever played IN Fresno. Call it suicidal, call it whatever, Oregon's got some stones for playing here. They snuck by Fresno State at home last year, and this game should be equally tight, especially with an injury to star back Johnathan Stewart. Having a new starter at quarterback will hold the Bulldogs up just enough to let Oregon escape, however.
Today's Schedule and Prediction
8:00 PM---Cincinnati at Pittsburgh ESPN2
The Prediction
Nick Lachey won't be happy, but his hometown Bearcats just aren't very good at this football thing recently. After playing as Wannstedt teams tend to do last year, Pitt thinks this is a year for dramatic improvement. They have Tyler Palko, which is a good start, and a horde of freshmen who can play and stuff.
Cincinnati could have a fine defensive performance, seeing as they return nearly their entire defense from last year. Such cohesiveness is rare and teams usually take advantage of that.
That said, last year's matchup went 38-20 in favor of a weaker Pittsburgh team. Unless the Panthers start turning the ball over they should be able to out-talent Cincinnati and score a few points.
Today's Schedule, Prediction
7:30 PM---Oregon State at Boise StateESPN
The Prediction
These teams met early last year, with Oregon State prevailing 30-27 to put Boise State in an 0-2 hole after their loss to Georgia. It was a fairly even game, with Boise playing a little better offensively. The weather played a hand with wind and a downpour of hail making play difficult.
Both teams are coming off meaningless wins against I-AA foes so it's hard to judge their performances just yet. We do know that they have veteran quarterbacks who like to throw interceptions (34 combined last year). Boise has a new coach in last year's offensive coordinator Chris Peterson who takes over for Dan Hawkins who went to Colorado.
The Broncos are also very tough at home, but were losing big to offensively-challenged Boston College in the MPC Computers Bowl (played in Boise) before a furious late rally came up just a bit short with a Zabransky interception in the end zone.
I think the combination of raucous home environment and a season unburdened by heavy national expectations should give Boise State a modest edge in this game against a team not much more talented than themselves. Oregon State has a fine running back in Yvenson Bernard and is renowned for their defensive play, but the defense has slipped in the last two seasons and shows little sign of recovery.
With some hesitancy, I'm going with the Broncos here for just their second all-time win against a Pac-10 foe (previous win was against Oregon State in 2004 by the score of 53-34).
Today's Schedule Plus Prediction
Day five of five in college football's opening weekend, with a big one: Miami and Florida State.
8:00 PM---Florida State at MiamiESPN
The Pick
Miami's at home for this one and has won five of the last six in this series. Both teams should have dramatically improved passing games compared to last year's battle when Kyle Wright and Drew Weatherford were both making their first collegiate starts. Florida State has the better backs but Miami has a more physical offensive line and defensive line and perhaps the country's best defense. I'm going with the Canes here as they look to erase the memory of both last year's error-filled loss to the Seminoles and that embarrassing 40-3 bowl loss to LSU.
The Picks
Northern Illinois at Ohio State---This is probably the best Saluki squad since the 10-2 group from 2002. We should see a smart effort from them, but Ohio State is the No. 1 team for a reason and should start to pull away late in the first half. Look for a big Ted Ginn play or two and a Buckeye win.
Akron at Penn State---This game has the potential to be close. Akron brings back a good quarterback and nearly the entire defense. The Nittany Lions struggled against South Florida in last year's opener and may be a little slow out of the gate again. That said, they won the last matchup in the 2003 opener, 48-10. Penn State gets the win here.
Stanford at Oregon---This one should be wild. Oregon will be playing its first game without planet-sized DT Haloti Ngata. Until proven otherwise, Stanford is all O this year and will have to fight for stops against a very good Oregon offense. I like the Ducks' balance and overall talent here, but Stanford should put up a fight in their second year under coach Walt Harris.
California at Tennessee---I've written plenty about this one. I like the Bears here, behind the strength of a good defense and their offensive playmakers, back Marshawn Lynch and receiver DeSean Jackson.
Southern Miss at Florida---Southern Miss has consistently been a top 25 team the last few years. They play good football and can challenge the occasional giant. However, this may be a bit of a down year. I expect the Gators to waste little time in dispensing with the Golden Eagles.
Utah at UCLA---Utah is a fringe top 25 team, UCLA is probably destined for the middle of the Pac-10. The Utes head into this game with a very efficient quarterback in Bret Ratliff. They should outlast the Bruins in a high-scoring affair.
Hawai'i at Alabama---The Tide are at home this year and should have an improved enough offense to dispatch with the pesky Warriors. The one worry is if Hawai'i finds a few scores early, they might just be able to distance themselves from the still-subpar Bama offense. The Tide should dominate with their defense but Hawai'i's bound to get a few TD's or FG's if they're given enough possessions.
Washington State at Auburn---Washington State is greatly improved this year on both sides of the ball. However, they're at a real overall talent disadvantage here and must play in the Tigers' raucous home stadium. I think this thing will actually be a fairly even affair but eventually Washington State's confidence will break and Auburn will pull ahead by two touchdowns.
Notre Dame at Georgia Tech---The problem I have with the hype of this game is that I don't know if the Yellow Jackets can score a whole lot of points. John Tenuta's a great DC but he needs a little more talent on his roster to play an offense like the Irish's. The Irish should have a fairly easy time and end up with over 40 points for the win.
USC at Arkansas---What a reloading job USC has, and get a tough draw with the opener at an angry Arkansas. That said, I don't see many ways the Trojans could lose this. Arkansas' new offensive coordinator has never coached at the college level and is going up against one of the best DC's in all of college football. The Trojans offense is filled with new faces, but it's very talented and they will eventually find ways to score in this game, somewhere in the range of 20-30 points. Arkansas will call it a great day if they can score that many. The Trojans win here.
Today's Game
8:00 PM---Nevada at Fresno StateESPN
Tonight's game should be an exciting affair, matching two of the WAC's three best teams. Current lines have the home Bulldogs as 12-13 point favorites.
I'm enamored of Nevada's "pistol" offensive formation, as it makes defenses look pretty stupid at times. However, it has its limitations and although Nevada executes it incredibly well, has its fits and starts---it's a streaky offense. What it does is force an opponent to play smart every down. While it can run down foes in the WAC, against more talented teams and in OOC play it's less effective.
One such talented team is tonight's opponent, Fresno State. Coach Pat Hill's boys are smarting after four consecutive losses to end last seson, and are a better team than their poor finish would indicate. Hill is a preparation wonk (anyone see that gem against USC last year?) and likes his team to play fast and physical. He has enough talent and size on both sides of the ball to improve upon last year's 38-35 upset loss to the Wolfpack.
Fresno State will be breaking in a new quarterback, which should limit their offensive consistency a little, but Nevada simply doesn't have the numbers on defense to hold Fresno back completely. I remember watching Fresno State break in departed quarterback Paul Pinegar a few years back. Unfortunately he was hurt almost immediately and replaced by Jeff Grady for a few games. Pinegar eventually emerged as a legit D-I quarterback and went onto a great Fresno State career. I expect a similar career arc for this year's starter, sophomore Tom Brandstater. His backup is the diminuitive Sean Norton out of QB-factory Hart High School in California.
My pick? Fresno State. Nevada will have its moments offensively, despite hilariously average talent. For example, their starting tailback is just about as slow of a D-I player as you will find anywhere, but he's a grinder and fights for a lot of yards in spite of himself. I'm not expecting fireworks tonight, as this shouldn't be a "typical WAC shootout". Fresno State should play reasonably well on defense and use their talent and homefield advantages to great effect.
Thursday's Picks
First things first, I don't have a pick between Buffalo and Temple. But, I think it should be interesting to see how the game unfolds between two legitimately bad D-I teams. We are always witness to slaughter in college football when you see the ticker go across the screen showing Oklahoma 70, Sad Sack U 3. However, games like this don't come along very often.
I'm really curious how the three MAC schools will do against BCS foes (Miami of Ohio vs. Northwestern, Kent State vs. Minnesota and Toledo at Iowa State). Two of the three are playing before home crowds and in the early-season anything can happen with teams so untested.
There's no sensible way to make a pick between Northwestern and Miami (OH) with all the emotion involved and Northwestern's coaching turnover. I wouldn't touch that one with a ten foot pole.
Kent State was terrible last year, but had undergone some turnover and the inconsistency that comes with installing a new offense. They should be much improved (Phil Steele's all over them), but probably not improved, or talented enough, to overtake a Minnesota team looking for somebody, anybody, to take the lead at running back for its vaunted run attack. That game has the strong potential to surprise with the Gophers replacing several quality offensive linemen and 3/4 if it's starting defensive line. I'll be cautious here and side with the Gophers.
The best battle is between legitimate bowl teams Toledo and Iowa State. Iowa State's set for a fine year and are well coached. They will be decided favorites. Toledo is replacing a star quarterback in Bruce Gradkowski, but have found a winning consistency in the last two seasons and should show well but in the end lose here.
In the most-hyped game of the day, South Carolina heads to Starkville and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have a persistent defense and little else. That should keep them in the ball game for a while, but will be outgunned by South Carolina. You can't win if you can't score.
Finally, in the late game we have San Diego State hosting UTEP. Surprisingly, the Aztecs are modest favorites with the gambling set. I like UTEP here. They were wildly inconsistent last year but if there's one thing we know about a Palmer, it's that he will find a way to have a glorious senior season. Younger brother Jordan's quest starts here. SDSU has a little more overall talent here, but I like Mike Price's coaching over new Aztec boss Chuck Long. Fear not Aztec Fans, as this is probably the best SDSU team in many years. They should continue to be favored in all but a handful of matches this year.
So, in summary:
Minnesota over Kent State
Iowa State over Toledo
South Carolina over Mississippi State
UTEP over San Diego State
Also, here's a good link with live updated odds from 14 Las Vegas sportsbooks and two offshore books.






