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« Pundit Roundup | Main | Friday Photo Blogging »
Sunday
12Aug2007

Colt McCoy's NFL Math

DateSunday, August 12, 2007 at 10:14AM

From The Baseball Savant's Big 12 Preview:

As a freshman, McCoy completed over 68% of his passes and made 13 starts. As Football Prospectus 2006 pointed out, the two main predictors of NFL success are college starts and completion percentage and McCoy most likely will have both in spades by the time he's done. Right now based on those stats projected over 4-years, McCoy is going to rank with guys like Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, Donovan McNabb, and Philip Rivers. Not bad company to be in.

Yup.  Combine some nice intangibles (toughness, a knack for the comeback, cool demeanor) and you've got the profile - potentially - for an NFL great.  It's early still, but what's football talk without a little speculation every now and then? 

AuthorCFR | Comment8 Comments |
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Reader Comments (8)

I'm not really fan of that formula. Surely a lot of Fla Gator QB's would have theoretically fit that mold? Tx Tech...

August 13, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterStephen
Yea, I guess someone forgot to tell that whole formula thing to Timmy Chang, either that or it's also a great gauge for being a backup CFL QB.
August 13, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterAdam
Solid rebuttals.

I do think that people have since learned to factor out "college systems" and the Texas Tech guys, Timmy Chang, etc.

Texas' system is much more pro-styled with McCoy back there than Young, more conventional passing routes and reads although there is still the shotgun element.

This is kind of a Moneyball argument, the numbers vs. observation and clearly combining the both works out for the best in evaluating quarterbacks.

At worst, Colt McCoy is looking like Chris Simms right now, and he's a guy bound for a 10-year career however uneventful it might be.
August 13, 2007 | Registered CommenterCFR
This is an area in which I would respectfully disagree. I really don't think McCoy is a major pro prospect. I think he is a four-year college guy who lacks the measurables that the others guys you mentioned have. Being in school four years will help him have an NFL career. Being not very big, strong or strong-armed will not.
August 13, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterHP
I think McCoy will be a pro and a half-backup half-starter-type.

If you are saying that a high % couopled with lots of starts is a formula to determine whether a QB will have some sort of NFL career, I'd agree.

However, I wouldn't use that as a large factor in drafting a 1st rounder.
August 19, 2007 | Unregistered CommenterStephen Kim
You never know until they take the first snap, but having watched Colt mature during the last 2 1/2 years, I believe he has real pro potential. While he's not big by pro standards, neither is he small, and he's continuing to add bulk. He's tough, mobile, emotionally mature and is an excellent student of the game. Most important in context of the pros, he's able to quickly recognize defenses and put the ball in the right place. He could use a little more arm strength (and with another year he'll probably develop it), but his passing efficiency is due as much to his recognition skills as his ability to deliver the ball quickly and accurately.
October 22, 2008 | Unregistered Commenter1man
Check out another reason to love Colt McCoy and his classy post-game interview:

http://geekettebits.com/information/colt-mccoys-post-2010-bcs-game-interview/

Way to go Colt! Great attitude and faith! :D
January 7, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterGeekette Bits
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January 21, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterELLAvX

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